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The security of Bitcoin protocols is deeply dependent on the incentives provided to miners, which come from a combination of block rewards and transaction fees. As Bitcoin experiences more halving events, the protocol reward converges to…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-09-12 Roozbeh Sarenche , Alireza Aghabagherloo , Svetla Nikova , Bart Preneel

Money laundering is a global phenomenon with wide-reaching social and economic consequences. Cryptocurrencies are particularly susceptible due to the lack of control by authorities and their anonymity. Thus, it is important to develop new…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-22 Catarina Oliveira , João Torres , Maria Inês Silva , David Aparício , João Tiago Ascensão , Pedro Bizarro

Our aim is to determine conditions for quantum computing technology to give rise to security risks associated with quantum Bitcoin mining. Specifically, we determine the speed and energy efficiency a quantum computer needs to offer an…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-10-05 Robert R. Nerem , Daya R. Gaur

For more than a decade, Bitcoin has gained as much adoption as it has received criticism. Fundamentally, Bitcoin is under fire for the high carbon footprint that results from the energy-intensive proof-of-work (PoW) consensus algorithm.…

General Economics · Economics 2023-05-04 Juan Ignacio Ibañez , Alexander Freier

In this paper we develop a linear expectile hidden Markov model for the analysis of cryptocurrency time series in a risk management framework. The methodology proposed allows to focus on extreme returns and describe their temporal evolution…

Applications · Statistics 2024-01-19 Beatrice Foroni , Luca Merlo , Lea Petrella

Cryptocurrency miners have great latitude in deciding which transactions they accept, including their own, and the order in which they accept them. Ethereum miners in particular use this flexibility to collect MEV-Miner Extractable Value-by…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2022-03-31 Julien Piet , Jaiden Fairoze , Nicholas Weaver

We revisit the fundamental question of Bitcoin's security against double spending attacks. While previous work has bounded the probability that a transaction is reversed, we show that no such guarantee can be effectively given if the…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2016-06-01 Yonatan Sompolinsky , Aviv Zohar

Rather than directly predicting future prices or returns, we follow a more recent trend in asset management and classify the state of a market based on labels. We use numerous standard labels and even construct our own ones. The labels rely…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2020-12-08 Michal Balcerak , Thomas Schmelzer

Financial market forecasting remains a formidable challenge despite the surge in computational capabilities and machine learning advancements. While numerous studies have underscored the precision of computer-generated market predictions,…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-11-16 Reza Yarbakhsh , Mahdieh Soleymani Baghshah , Hamidreza Karimaghaie

Several attacks have been proposed against Proof-of-Work blockchains, which may increase the attacker's share of mining rewards (e.g., selfish mining, block withholding). A further impact of such attacks, which has not been considered in…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Yoko Shibuya , Go Yamamoto , Fuhito Kojima , Elaine Shi , Shin'ichiro Matsuo , Aron Laszka

We make several contributions that quantify the real-time hash rate and therefore the consensus of a blockchain. We show that by using only the hash value of blocks, we can estimate and measure the hash rate of all miners or individual…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2017-07-04 A. Pinar Ozisik , George Bissias , Brian Levine

We develop a dynamic model of the Bitcoin market where users set fees themselves and miners decide whether to operate and whom to validate based on those fees. Our analysis reveals how, in equilibrium, users adjust their bids in response to…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-02-24 Yuichiro Kamada , Shunya Noda

Cryptographic Self-Selection is a common primitive underlying leader-selection for Proof-of-Stake blockchain protocols. The concept was first popularized in Algorand [CM19], who also observed that the protocol might be manipulable. [FHWY22]…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-07-25 Linda Cai , Jingyi Liu , S. Matthew Weinberg , Chenghan Zhou

Bitcoin is a decentralized crypto-currency, and an accompanying protocol, created in 2008. Bitcoin nodes continuously generate and propagate blocks---collections of newly approved transactions that are added to Bitcoin's ledger. Block…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2015-07-24 Ayelet Sapirshtein , Yonatan Sompolinsky , Aviv Zohar

Bitcoin cryptocurrency system enables users to transact securely and pseudo-anonymously by using an arbitrary number of aliases (Bitcoin addresses). Cybercriminals exploit these characteristics to commit immutable and presumably untraceable…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2018-11-27 Mauro Conti , Ankit Gangwal , Sushmita Ruj

The S&P 500 index is considered the most popular trading instrument in financial markets. With the rise of cryptocurrencies over the past years, Bitcoin has also grown in popularity and adoption. The paper aims to analyze the daily return…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-11 A. H. Nzokem

It is known that a player in a noncooperative game can benefit by publicly restricting his possible moves before play begins. We show that, more generally, a player may benefit by publicly committing to pay an external party an amount that…

General Economics · Economics 2024-01-05 James W. Bono , David H. Wolpert

Although Bitcoin was intended to be a decentralized digital currency, in practice, mining power is quite concentrated. This fact is a persistent source of concern for the Bitcoin community. We provide an explanation using a simple model to…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2018-11-22 Nick Arnosti , S. Matthew Weinberg

Using the generalized extreme value theory to characterize tail distributions, we address liquidation, leverage, and optimal margins for bitcoin long and short futures positions. The empirical analysis of perpetual bitcoin futures on BitMEX…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-10 Zhiyong Cheng , Jun Deng , Tianyi Wang , Mei Yu

Stratum, the de-facto mining communication protocol used by blockchain based cryptocurrency systems, enables miners to reliably and efficiently fetch jobs from mining pool servers. In this paper we exploit Stratum's lack of encryption to…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2017-03-21 Ruben Recabarren , Bogdan Carbunar