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Ordered sequences of univariate or multivariate regressions provide statistical models for analysing data from randomized, possibly sequential interventions, from cohort or multi-wave panel studies, but also from cross-sectional or…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-19 Nanny Wermuth , Kayvan Sadeghi

Markov models are widely used to describe processes of stochastic dynamics. Here, we show that Markov models are a natural consequence of the dynamical principle of Maximum Caliber. First, we show that when there are different possible…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-28 Hao Ge , Steve Presse , Kingshuk Ghosh , Ken Dill

A novel class of non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes relying on continuous-time piecewise-deterministic Markov Processes has recently emerged. In these algorithms, the state of the Markov process evolves according to a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-16 Paul Vanetti , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet

Many dynamical systems can be successfully analyzed by representing them as networks. Empirically measured networks and dynamic processes that take place in these situations show heterogeneous, non-Markovian, and intrinsically correlated…

Learning complex distributions is a fundamental challenge in contemporary applications. Shen and Meinshausen (2024) introduced engression, a generative approach based on scoring rules that maps noise (and covariates, if available) directly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Xinwei Shen , Nicolai Meinshausen , Tong Zhang

Markov State Models (MSM) are widely used to elucidate dynamic properties of molecular systems from unbiased Molecular Dynamics (MD). However, the implementation of reweighting schemes for MSMs to analyze biased simulations, for example…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2020-11-26 Stefanie Kieninger , Luca Donati , Bettina G. Keller

The equations of classical mechanics can be used to model the time evolution of countless physical systems, from the astrophysical to the atomic scale. Accurate numerical integration requires small time steps, which limits the computational…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2026-03-09 Filippo Bigi , Johannes Spies , Michele Ceriotti

Data-based inference of directed interactions in complex dynamical systems is a problem common to many disciplines of science. In this work, we study networks of spatially separate dynamical entities, which could represent physical systems…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-03-15 Tim Hempel , Sarah A. M. Loos

When two Markov operators commute, it suggests that we can couple two copies of one of the corresponding processes. We explicitly construct a number of couplings of this type for a commuting family of Markov processes on the set of…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-11-20 Anthony P. Metcalfe , Neil O'Connell , Jon Warren

Markov switching models (MSMs) are probabilistic models that employ multiple sets of parameters to describe different dynamic regimes that a time series may exhibit at different periods of time. The switching mechanism between regimes is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-13 Silvia Chiappa

With recent advances in structural biology, including experimental techniques and deep learning-enabled high-precision structure predictions, molecular dynamics methods that scale up to large biomolecular systems are required. Current…

Biological Physics · Physics 2022-06-24 Tim Hempel , Simon Olsson , Frank Noé

Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) are probabilistic graphical models widely used in spatial statistics and related fields to model dependencies over spatial structures. We establish a formal connection between GMRFs and convolutional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-11 Per Sidén , Fredrik Lindsten

The proliferation of capable and efficient machine learning (ML) models marks one of the strongest methodological shifts in signal processing (SP) in its nearly 100-year history. ML models support the development of SP systems that…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-01 Daniel Waxman , Fernando Llorente , Petar M. Djurić

Causal DAGs (also known as Bayesian networks) are a popular tool for encoding conditional dependencies between random variables. In a causal DAG, the random variables are modeled as vertices in the DAG, and it is stipulated that every…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2024-07-04 Vidya Sagar Sharma

The use of coordinate processes for the modelling of impulse control for general Markov processes typically involves the construction of a probability measure on a countable product of copies of the path space. In addition, admissibility of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-10-02 K. L. Helmes , R. H. Stockbridge , C. Zhu

We propose a deep generative Markov State Model (DeepGenMSM) learning framework for inference of metastable dynamical systems and prediction of trajectories. After unsupervised training on time series data, the model contains (i) a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-14 Hao Wu , Andreas Mardt , Luca Pasquali , Frank Noe

Many biological systems dynamically rearrange their components through a sequence of configurations in order to perform their functions. Such dynamic processes have been studied using network models that sequentially retrieve a set of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-12-01 Lukas Herron , Pablo Sartori , BingKan Xue

Practitioners use Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) in different problems for about sixty years. Besides, Conditional Random Fields (CRFs) are an alternative to HMMs and appear in the literature as different and somewhat concurrent models. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-28 Elie Azeraf , Emmanuel Monfrini , Wojciech Pieczynski

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is attracting tremendous attention in the autonomous driving task as a powerful control technique. The success of an MPC controller strongly depends on an accurate internal dynamics model. However, the static…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-28 Yuan Zhang , Joschka Boedecker , Chuxuan Li , Guyue Zhou

This paper discusses causal independence models and a generalization of these models called causal interaction models. Causal interaction models are models that have independent mechanisms where a mechanism can have several causes. In…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-05-19 Christopher Meek , David Heckerman