Related papers: Tail Probabilities for Randomized Program Runtimes…
We study tail risk dynamics in high-frequency financial markets and their connection with trading activity and market uncertainty. We introduce a dynamic extreme value regression model accommodating both stationary and local unit-root…
This paper presents a wp-style calculus for obtaining expectations on the outcomes of (mutually) recursive probabilistic programs. We provide several proof rules to derive one-- and two--sided bounds for such expectations, and show the…
We consider random walks, say $W_n=(M_0, M_1,\dots, M_n)$, of length $n$ starting at 0 and based on the martingale sequence $M_k$ with differences $X_m=M_m-M_{m-1}$. Assuming that the differences are bounded, $|X_m|\leq 1$, we solve the…
In this paper, we study estimates on tail probabilities $\mathbb{P}(S_r \ge t)$ of several classes of subordinators under mild assumptions on the tail of its L\'evy measure. As an application of that result, we obtain two-sided estimates…
A random vector $X$ with representation $X=\sum_{j\geq0}A_jZ_j$ is considered. Here, $(Z_j)$ is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random vectors and $(A_j)$ is a sequence of random matrices, `predictable' with respect to…
In this paper, we develop approximate dynamic programming methods for stochastic systems modeled as Markov Decision Processes, given both soft performance criteria and hard constraints in a class of probabilistic temporal logic called…
A computer code can simulate a system's propagation of variation from random inputs to output measures of quality. Our aim here is to estimate a critical output tail probability or quantile without a large Monte Carlo experiment. Instead,…
In this paper we are concerned with a sample of asymptotically independent risks. Tail asymptotic probabilities for linear combinations of randomly weighted order statistics are approximated under various assumptions, where the individual…
We consider random walks with finite second moment which drifts to $-\infty$ and have heavy tail. We focus on the events when the minimum and the final value of this walk belong to some compact set. We first specify the associated…
We use the martingale-theoretic approach of game-theoretic probability to incorporate imprecision into the study of randomness. In particular, we define several notions of randomness associated with interval, rather than precise,…
In this paper, I present a completely new type of upper and lower bounds on the right-tail probabilities of continuous random variables with unbounded support and with semi-bounded support from the left. The presented upper and lower…
Deciding termination is a fundamental problem in the analysis of probabilistic imperative programs. We consider the qualitative and quantitative probabilistic termination problems for an imperative programming model with discrete…
The notion of program sensitivity (aka Lipschitz continuity) specifies that changes in the program input result in proportional changes to the program output. For probabilistic programs the notion is naturally extended to expected…
Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts,…
We present an approximated maximum likelihood method for the multifractal random walk processes of [E. Bacry et al., Phys. Rev. E 64, 026103 (2001)]. The likelihood is computed using a Laplace approximation and a truncation in the…
In previous work Majda and McLaughlin computed explicit expressions for the $2N$th moments of a passive scalar advected by a linear shear flow in the form of an integral over ${\bf R}^N$. In this paper we first compute the asymptotics of…
Gaps (or spacings) between consecutive eigenvalues are a central topic in random matrix theory. The goal of this paper is to study the tail distribution of these gaps in various random matrix models. We give the first repulsion bound for…
In this paper non-asymptotic moment estimates are derived for tail of distribution for discrete time polynomial martingale by means of martingale differences as a rule in the terms of unconditional and unconditional relative moments and…
Let $\{X_1, X_2, ... \}$ be a sequence of dependent heavy-tailed random variables with distributions $F_1, F_2,...$ on $(-\infty,\infty)$, and let $\tau$ be a nonnegative integer-valued random variable independent of the sequence $\{X_k, k…
We investigate the use of optimization to compute bounds for extremal performance measures. This approach takes a non-parametric viewpoint that aims to alleviate the issue of model misspecification possibly encountered by conventional…