Sequential Computer Experimental Design for Estimating an Extreme Probability or Quantile
Machine Learning
2019-08-16 v1 Machine Learning
Abstract
A computer code can simulate a system's propagation of variation from random inputs to output measures of quality. Our aim here is to estimate a critical output tail probability or quantile without a large Monte Carlo experiment. Instead, we build a statistical surrogate for the input-output relationship with a modest number of evaluations and then sequentially add further runs, guided by a criterion to improve the estimate. We compare two criteria in the literature. Moreover, we investigate two practical questions: how to design the initial code runs and how to model the input distribution. Hence, we close the gap between the theory of sequential design and its application.
Cite
@article{arxiv.1908.05357,
title = {Sequential Computer Experimental Design for Estimating an Extreme Probability or Quantile},
author = {Hao Chen and William J. Welch},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:1908.05357},
year = {2019}
}