Related papers: Minimax Optimal Sequential Hypothesis Tests for Ma…
We revisit the problem of statistical sequence matching initiated by Unnikrishnan (TIT 2015) and derive theoretical performance guarantees for sequential tests that have bounded expected stopping times. Specifically, in this problem, one is…
In this paper, we deal with sequential testing of multiple hypotheses. In the general scheme of construction of optimal tests based on the backward induction, we propose a modification which provides a simplified (generally speaking,…
In multi-period stochastic optimization problems, the future optimal decision is a random variable whose distribution depends on the parameters of the optimization problem. We analyze how the expected value of this random variable changes…
We consider statistical Markov Decision Processes where the decision maker is risk averse against model ambiguity. The latter is given by an unknown parameter which influences the transition law and the cost functions. Risk aversion is…
We consider the problem of sequential detection of a change in the statistical behavior of a hidden Markov model. By adopting a worst-case analysis with respect to the time of change and by taking into account the data that can be accessed…
We explore the concept of a consistent exchangeable survival process - a joint distribution of survival times in which the risk set evolves as a continuous-time Markov process with homogeneous transition rates. We show a correspondence with…
We study the task of learning from non-i.i.d. data. In particular, we aim at learning predictors that minimize the conditional risk for a stochastic process, i.e. the expected loss of the predictor on the next point conditioned on the set…
Recently there is a large amount of work devoted to the study of Markov chain stochastic gradient methods (MC-SGMs) which mainly focus on their convergence analysis for solving minimization problems. In this paper, we provide a…
Permutation tests are widely used in statistics, providing a finite-sample guarantee on the type I error rate whenever the distribution of the samples under the null hypothesis is invariant to some rearrangement. Despite its increasing…
Given observations from a circular random variable contaminated by an additive measurement error, we consider the problem of minimax optimal goodness-of-fit testing in a non-asymptotic framework. We propose direct and indirect testing…
The problem of simple $M-$ary hypothesis testing under a generic performance criterion that depends on arbitrary functions of error probabilities is considered. Using results from convex analysis, it is proved that an optimal decision rule…
We consider Markov decision processes (MDP) as generators of sequences of probability distributions over states. A probability distribution is p-synchronizing if the probability mass is at least p in a single state, or in a given set of…
How can we monitor, in real time, whether one uncertain prospect has any upside over another? To answer this question, we develop a novel family of sequential, anytime-valid tests for stochastic dominance (SD; also known as stochastic…
We consider the problem of estimating the unconditional distribution of a post-model-selection estimator. The notion of a post-model-selection estimator here refers to the combined procedure resulting from first selecting a model (e.g., by…
Markov decision processes (MDPs) with rewards are a widespread and well-studied model for systems that make both probabilistic and nondeterministic choices. A fundamental result about MDPs is that their minimal and maximal expected rewards…
Markov models are widely used to describe processes of stochastic dynamics. Here, we show that Markov models are a natural consequence of the dynamical principle of Maximum Caliber. First, we show that when there are different possible…
Computing optimal conditional reachability probabilities in Markov decision processes (MDPs) is tractable by a reduction to reachability probabilities. Yet, this reduction yields cyclic, challenging MDPs that are often notoriously hard to…
Sequential methods for quantum hypothesis testing offer significant advantages over fixed-length approaches, which rely on a predefined number of state copies. Despite their potential, these methods remain underexplored for unambiguous…
The problem of minimizing convex functionals of probability distributions is solved under the assumption that the density of every distribution is bounded from above and below. A system of sufficient and necessary first-order optimality…
In this paper we focus on providing sufficient conditions for some well-known stochastic orders in reliability but dealing with the discrete versions of them, filling a gap in the literature. In particular, we find conditions based on the…