Related papers: How does stock market volatility react to oil shoc…
Buying and selling stocks causes price changes, which are described by the price impact function. To explain the shape of this function, we study the Island ECN orderbook. In addition to transaction data, the orderbook contains information…
In informationally efficient financial markets, option prices and this implied volatility should immediately be adjusted to new information that arrives along with a jump in underlying's return, whereas gradual changes in implied volatility…
Taking the European Central Bank unconventional policies as a reference, we suggest a class of Multiplicative Error Models (MEM) taylored to analyze the impact such policies have on stock market volatility. The new set of models, called MEM…
Stock market volatility forecasting is a task relevant to assessing market risk. We investigate the interaction between news and prices for the one-day-ahead volatility prediction using state-of-the-art deep learning approaches. The…
In this paper, we model the impact of oil price volatility on Tehranstock and industry indices in two periods of international sanctions and post-sanction. To analyse the purpose of study, we use Feed-forward neural net-works. The period of…
A simple Hawkes model have been developed for the price tick structure dynamics incorporating market microstructure noise and trade clustering. In this paper, the model is extended with random mark to deal with more realistic price tick…
Cross-sectional dispersion in firm-level realized skewness is significantly and negatively related to future stock market returns. The predictive power of skewness dispersion is robust to in-sample and out-of-sample estimation and is…
A new approach to obtaining market--directional information, based on a non-stationary solution to the dynamic equation "future price tends to the value that maximizes the number of shares traded per unit time" [1] is presented. In our…
We detect and quantify asymmetries in volatility spillovers using the realized semivariances of petroleum commodities: crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil. During the 1987--2014 period we document increasing spillovers from volatility…
We use the expectation of the range of an arithmetic Brownian motion and the method of moments on the daily high, low, opening and closing prices to estimate the volatility of the stock price. The daily price jump at the opening is…
Financial markets can be highly sensitive to news, investor sentiment, and economic indicators, leading to important asset price fluctuations. In this study we focus on crude oil, due to its crucial role in commodity markets and the global…
This paper investigates the effect of the novel coronavirus and crude oil prices on the United States (US) economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Using daily data for the period January 21-March 13, 2020, our Autoregressive Distributed Lag…
Financial time series exhibit a number of interesting properties that are difficult to explain with simple models. These properties include fat-tails in the distribution of price fluctuations (or returns) that are slowly removed at longer…
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, VIX, is calculated based on prices of out-of-the-money put and call options on the S&P 500 index (SPX). Sometimes called the "investor fear gauge," the VIX is a measure of the…
In this study, we introduce a physical model inspired by statistical physics for predicting price volatility and expected returns by leveraging Level 3 order book data. By drawing parallels between orders in the limit order book and…
Measuring beliefs about natural disasters is challenging. Deep out-of-the-money options allow investors to hedge at a range of strikes and time horizons, thus the 3-dimensional surface of firm-level option prices provides information on (i)…
We investigate the strength and the direction of information transfer in the U.S. stock market between the composite stock price index of stock market and prices of individual stocks using the transfer entropy. Through the directionality of…
One of the shortcomings of the Black and Scholes model on option pricing is the assumption that trading of the underlying asset does not affect the price of that asset. This assumption can be fulfilled only in perfectly liquid markets.…
We empirically analyze the price and liquidity responses to trade signs, traded volumes and signed traded volumes. Utilizing the singular value decomposition, we explore the interconnections of price responses and of liquidity responses…
Price impact of a trade is an important element in pre-trade and post-trade analyses. We introduce a framework to analyze the market price of liquidity risk, which allows us to derive an inhomogeneous Bernoulli ordinary differential…