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We propose a model with heterogeneous interacting traders which can explain some of the stylized facts of stock market returns. In the model synchronization effects, which generate large fluctuations in returns, can arise either from an…
We develop a behavioral model for liquidity and volatility based on empirical regularities in trading order flow in the London Stock Exchange. This can be viewed as a very simple agent based model in which all components of the model are…
To identify emerging interdependencies between traded stocks we investigate the behavior of the stocks of FTSE 100 companies in the period 2000-2015, by looking at daily stock values. Exploiting the power of information theoretical measures…
In this paper we compare market price fluctuations with the response to fundamental price drops within the Lux-Marchesi model which is able to reproduce the most important stylized facts of real market data. Major differences can be…
In the over-the-counter market in derivatives, we sometimes see large numbers of traders taking the same position and risk. When there is this kind of concentration in the market, the position impacts the pricings of all other derivatives…
Trading a financial asset pushes its price as well as the prices of other assets, a phenomenon known as cross-impact. The empirical estimation of this effect on complex financial instruments, such as derivatives, is an open problem. To…
Asymmetries in volatility spillovers are highly relevant to risk valuation and portfolio diversification strategies in financial markets. Yet, the large literature studying information transmission mechanisms ignores the fact that bad and…
This paper studies the effect of quarterly earnings reports on the stock price. The profitability of the stock is modelled by geometric Brownian diffusion and the Constant Elasticity of Variance model. We fit several variations of…
Statistical and multiscaling characteristics of WTI Crude Oil prices expressed in US dollar in relation to the most traded currencies as well as to gold futures and to the E-mini S$\&$P500 futures prices on 5 min intra-day recordings in the…
In the Cont-Bouchaud model [cond-mat/9712318] of stock markets, percolation clusters act as buying or selling investors and their statistics controls that of the price variations. Rather than fixing the concentration controlling each…
This paper describes asset price and return disturbances as result of relations between transactions and multiple kinds of expectations. We show that disturbances of expectations can cause fluctuations of trade volume, price and return. We…
It is commonly believed that the correlations between stock returns increase in high volatility periods. We investigate how much of these correlations can be explained within a simple non-Gaussian one-factor description with time…
Crude oil is a major component in most advanced economies of the world. Accurately predicting and understanding the behavior of crude oil prices is important for economists, analysts, forecasters, and traders, to name a few. The price of…
The waiting time needed for a stock market index to undergo a given percentage change in its value is found to have an up-down asymmetry, which, surprisingly, is not observed for the individual stocks composing that index. To explain this,…
The Great Recession highlighted the role of financial and uncertainty shocks as drivers of business cycle fluctuations. However, the fact that uncertainty shocks may affect economic activity by tightening financial conditions makes…
We describe a simple model for speculative trading based on adaptive behavior of economic agents.The adaptive behavior is expressed through a feedback mechanism for changing agents' stock-to-bond ratios, depending on the past performance of…
We propose a group model for correlations in stock markets. In the group model the markets are composed of several groups, within which the stock price fluctuations are correlated. The spectral properties of empirical correlation matrices…
The price multiplier effect provides precious insight into the behavior of investors during episodes of speculative trading. It tells us that the higher the price of an asset is (within a set of similar assets) the more its price is likely…
The financial market and turbulence have been broadly compared on account of the same quantitative methods and several common stylized facts they shared. In this paper, the She-Leveque (SL) hierarchy, proposed to explain the anomalous…
In this paper, we develop a general rough volatility model for commodities that provides an automatic calibration of the initial term structure of the futures prices and an appropriate treatment of the Samuelson effect. After the…