Related papers: A New Formula for Predicting Solar Cycles
We describe the defining observations of the solar cycle that provide constraints for the dynamo processes operating within the Sun. Specifically, we report on the following topics: historical sunspot numbers and revisions; active region…
A phenomenological model is presented for the quantitative description of individual solar cycles' features, such as onset, intensity, evolution, in terms of the number of M and X-class solar flares. The main elements of the model are the…
Like the solar cycle, stellar activity cycles are also irregular. Observations reveal that rapidly rotating (young) Sun-like stars exhibit a high level of activity with no Maunder-like grand minima and rarely display smooth regular activity…
We review recent insights into the dynamics of the solar convection zone obtained from global numerical simulations, focusing on two recent developments in particular. The first is quasi-cyclic magnetic activity in a long-duration dynamo…
We compare two candidate nonlinearities for regulating the solar cycle within the Babcock-Leighton paradigm: tilt quenching (whereby the tilt of active regions is reduced in stronger cycles) and latitude quenching (whereby flux emerges at…
The polar field reversal is a crucial process in the cyclic evolution of the large-scale magnetic field of the Sun.Various important characteristics of a solar cycle, such as its duration and strength, and also the cycle predictability, are…
The Babcock-Leighton type of dynamo has received recent support in terms of the discovery in the observational records of systematic cycle-to-cycle variations in the tilt angle of sunspot groups. It has been proposed that these variations…
The profile of the differential rotation together with the sign of the alpha-effect determine the dynamo wave direction. In early models of the solar dynamo the dynamo wave often leads to a poleward migration of the activity belts. Flux…
A combination of diamagnetic pumping and a nonlocal alpha-effect of the Babcock-Leighton type in a solar dynamo model helps to reproduce observations of solar magnetic activity. The period of the solar cycle can be reproduced without…
Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their Transient Climate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~100% of its mean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based on observed…
Evidence strongly indicates that the strength of the Sun's polar fields near the time of a sunspot cycle minimum determines the strength of the following solar activity cycle. We use our Advective Flux Transport (AFT) code, with flows well…
The Schwabe (~11 yr) value for the annual sunspot number is sometimes uncritically applied to other measures of solar activity, direct and indirect, including the 10.7 cm radio flux, the inflow of galactic cosmic rays, solar flare…
Physics-based solar cycle predictions provide an effective way to verify our understanding of the solar cycle. Before the start of cycle 25, several physics-based solar cycle predictions were developed. These predictions use flux transport…
One prominent feature of solar cycle is its irregular variation in its cycle strength, making it challenging to predict the amplitude of the next cycle. Studies show that fluctuations and nonlinearity in generating poloidal field throughout…
Aims: We aim to investigate how converging flows towards active regions affect the surface transport of magnetic flux, as well as their impact on the generation of the Sun's poloidal field. The inflows constitute a potential non-linear…
There are many proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior. In a previous paper we updated the full-shape curve prediction of the current solar cycle 24 using a non-linear dynamics method and we compared the results with the…
We amend Babcock's original scenario for the global dynamo process that sustains the Sun's 22-year magnetic cycle. The amended scenario fits post-Babcock observed features of the magnetic activity cycle and convection zone, and is based on…
Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during…
The 11-year sunspot cycle has many irregularities, the most promi- nent amongst them being the grand minima when sunspots may not be seen for several cycles. After summarizing the relevant observational data about the irregularities, we…
One obvious feature of the solar cycle is its variation from one cycle to another. In this article, we review the dynamo models for the long-term variations of the solar cycle. By long-term variations, we mean the cycle modulations beyond…