Related papers: A New Formula for Predicting Solar Cycles
The polar magnetic field precursor is considered to be the most robust and physics-based method for the prediction of the next solar cycle strength. However, to make a reliable prediction of a cycle, is the polar field at the solar minimum…
The dynamic activity of the Sun -- sustained by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in its interior -- modulates the electromagnetic, particulate and radiative environment in space. While solar activity variations on short…
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and the Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the…
Recent results indicate that the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for poloidal field creation plays an important role in the solar cycle. However, modelling this mechanism has not always correctly captured the underlying physics. In particular,…
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather and climate). In recent years there has been an…
The hemispheric asymmetry of sunspot activity observed possesses a regular component varying on a time scale of several solar cycles whose origin and properties are currently debated. This paper addresses the question of whether the…
We develop and subsequently explore the solution space of a simple flux transport dynamo model that incorporates a time dependent large scale meridional circulation. Based on recent observations we prescribed an analytical form for the…
The prediction of the evolution of individual solar cycles is a developing field, faced with divergence of forecasts even for a few years in the future. Specifically for solar flares, long-term modeling is practically absent even in rough…
The Sun's polar magnetic fields are directly related to solar cycle variability. The strength of the polar fields at the start (minimum) of a cycle determine the subsequent amplitude of that cycle. In addition, the polar field reversals at…
Prediction of solar cycle is an important goal of Solar Physics both because it serves as a touchstone for our understanding of the sun and also because of its societal value for a space faring civilization. The task is difficult and…
The solar cycle appears to be remarkably synchronized with the gravitational torques exerted by the tidally dominant planets Venus, Earth and Jupiter. Recently, a possible synchronization mechanism was proposed that relies on the intrinsic…
Detailed study of the solar magnetic field is crucial to understand its generation, transport and reversals. The timing of the reversals may have implications on space weather and thus identification of the temporal behavior of the critical…
The Sun and solar-type stars exhibit irregular cyclic variations in their magnetic activity over long time scales. To understand this irregularity, we employed the flux transport dynamo models to investigate the behavior of one solar mass…
Theoretical models for the solar dynamo range from simple low-dimensional ``toy models'' to complex 3D-MHD simulations. Here we mainly discuss appproaches that are motivated and guided by solar (and stellar) observations. We give a brief…
This deep, extended solar minimum and the slow start to Cycle 24 strongly suggest that Cycle 24 will be a small cycle. A wide array of solar cycle prediction techniques have been applied to predicting the amplitude of Cycle 24 with widely…
The turbulent pumping effect corresponds to the transport of magnetic flux due to the presence of density and turbulence gradients in convectively unstable layers. In the induction equation it appears as an advective term and for this…
The most widely accepted model of the solar cycle is the flux transport dynamo model. This model evolved out of the traditional $\alpha \Omega$ dynamo model which was first developed at a time when the existence of the Sun's meridional…
We present the assessment of a diffusion-dominated mean field axisymmetric dynamo model in reproducing historical solar activity and forecast for solar cycle 25. Previous studies point to the Sun's polar magnetic field as an important proxy…
The inherent stochastic and nonlinear nature of the solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycles vary in a wide range, making it difficult to predict the strength of an upcoming solar cycle. Recently, our work has shown that by using…
The duration of activity growths in solar cycles is on average shorter than the duration of its declines. This asymmetry can result from fluctuations in dynamo parameters. A solar dynamo model with fluctuations in the $\alpha$-effect shows…