Related papers: A New Formula for Predicting Solar Cycles
We begin with a review of the predictions for cycle~24 before its onset. After summarizing the basics of the flux transport dynamo model, we discuss how this model had been used to make a successful prediction of cycle~24, on the assumption…
The flux transport dynamo, in which the poloidal magnetic field is generated by the Babcock--Leighton mechanism and the meridional circulation plays a crucial role, has emerged as an attractive model for the solar cycle. Based on…
The prediction of the strength of future solar cycles is of interest because of its practical significance for space weather and as a test of our theoretical understanding of the solar cycle. The Babcock-Leighton mechanism allows…
Having advanced knowledge of solar activity is important because the Sun's magnetic output governs space weather and impacts technologies reliant on space. However, the irregular nature of the solar cycle makes solar activity predictions a…
Context. Solar activity cycles vary in amplitude and duration. The variations can be at least partly explained by fluctuations in dynamo parameters. Aims. We want to restrict uncertainty in fluctuating dynamo parameters and find out which…
The dynamic activity of stars such as the Sun influences (exo)planetary space environments through modulation of stellar radiation, plasma wind, particle and magnetic fluxes. Energetic stellar phenomena such as flares and coronal mass…
Parameters of a special kind of \alpha-effect known in dynamo theory as the Babcock-Leighton mechanism are estimated using the data of sunspot catalogs. The estimates evidence the presence of the Babcock-Leighton \alpha-effect on the Sun.…
Using different proxies of solar activity, we have studied the following features of solar cycle. (i) A linear correlation between the amplitude of cycle and its decay rate, (ii) a linear correlation between the amplitude of cycle $n$ and…
Within the Babcock-Leighton framework for the solar dynamo, the strength of a cycle is expected to depend on the strength of the dipole moment or net hemispheric flux during the preceding minimum, which depends on how much flux was present…
The sunspot solar cycle has been usually explained as the result of a dynamo process operating in the sun. This is a classical problem in Astrophysics that until the present is not fully solved. Here we discuss current problems and…
At present, Babcock-Leighton flux transport solar dynamo models appear as the most promising model for explaining diverse observational aspects of the sunspot cycle. The success of these flux transport dynamo models is largely dependent…
Accurate prediction of the 11-year solar cycle remains a major challenge in solar physics and is important for space weather forecasting. A persistent property of the cycle is its asymmetry: the rise phase is usually much shorter than the…
It is proposed that the observed near-surface inflows towards the active regions and sunspot zones provide a nonlinear feedback mechanism that limits the amplitude of a Babcock-Leighton-type solar dynamo and determines the variation of the…
Although systematic measurements of the solar polar magnetic field exist only from mid 1970s, other proxies can be used to infer the polar field at earlier times. The observational data indicate a strong correlation between the polar field…
The sunspot number data during the past 400 years indicates that both the profile and the amplitude of the solar cycle have large variations. Some precursors of the solar cycle were identified aiming to predict the solar cycle. The polar…
The solar cycle is generated by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism which involves the induction and recycling of the toroidal and poloidal components of the Sun's magnetic field. Recent observations indicate that the Babcock-Leighton…
We propose that grand minima in solar activity are caused by simultaneous fluctuations in the meridional circulation and the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for the poloidal field generation in the flux transport dynamo model. We present the…
Various methods (or recipes) have been proposed to predict future solar activity levels - with mixed success. Among these, some precursor methods based upon quantities determined around or a few years before solar minimum have provided…
The predictability, or lack thereof, of the solar cycle is governed by numerous separate physical processes that act in unison in the interior of the Sun. Magnetic flux transport and the finite time delay it introduces, specifically in the…
We study the origin of the predictive skill of some methods to forecast the strength of solar activity cycles. A simple flux transport model for the azimuthally averaged radial magnetic field at the solar surface is used, which contains a…