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This paper presents a method to identify causal interactions between two time series. The largest eigenvalue follows a Tracy-Widom distribution, derived from a Coulomb gas model. This defines causal interactions as the pushing and pulling…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-19 Alejandro Rodriguez Dominguez , Om Hari Yadav

Identifying causality behind complex systems plays a significant role in different domains, such as decision making, policy implementations, and management recommendations. However, existing causality studies on temporal event sequences…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Sujia Zhu , Yue Shen , Zihao Zhu , Wang Xia , Baofeng Chang , Ronghua Liang , Guodao Sun

The task of joint dialog sentiment classification (DSC) and act recognition (DAR) aims to simultaneously predict the sentiment label and act label for each utterance in a dialog. In this paper, we put forward a new framework which models…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-03-09 Bowen Xing , Ivor W. Tsang

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Yulun Wu , Louie McConnell , Claudia Iriondo

We investigate the problem of inferring the causal predictors of a response $Y$ from a set of $d$ explanatory variables $(X^1,\dots,X^d)$. Classical ordinary least squares regression includes all predictors that reduce the variance of $Y$.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-29 Niklas Pfister , Peter Bühlmann , Jonas Peters

The automatic generation of diverse and human-like facial reactions in dyadic dialogue remains a critical challenge for human-computer interaction systems. Existing methods fail to model the stochasticity and dynamics inherent in real human…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Luo Cheng , Song Siyang , Yan Siyuan , Yu Zhen , Ge Zongyuan

Estimating the treatment effect within network structures is a key focus in online controlled experiments, particularly for social media platforms. We investigate a scenario where the unit-level outcome of interest comprises a series of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-28 Yilin Li , Lu Deng , Yong Wang , Wang Miao

A fundamental goal of scientific research is to learn about causal relationships. However, despite its critical role in the life and social sciences, causality has not had the same importance in Natural Language Processing (NLP), which has…

Recommender systems easily face the issue of user preference shifts. User representations will become out-of-date and lead to inappropriate recommendations if user preference has shifted over time. To solve the issue, existing work focuses…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-03-29 Wenjie Wang , Xinyu Lin , Liuhui Wang , Fuli Feng , Yunshan Ma , Tat-Seng Chua

Identifying ``true causality'' is a fundamental challenge in complex systems research. Widely adopted methods, like the Granger causality test, capture statistical dependencies between variables rather than genuine driver-response…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-05 Yingzhu Liu , Shengyuan Huang , Zhongkui Li , Xiaoguang Yang , Wenjun Mei

We introduce a novel framework for temporal causal discovery and inference that addresses two key challenges: complex nonlinear dependencies and spurious correlations. Our approach employs a multi-layer Transformer-based time-series…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-25 Jihua Huang , Yi Yao , Ajay Divakaran

Granger causality method analyzes the time series causalities without building a complex causality graph. However, the traditional Granger causality method assumes that the causalities lie between time series channels and remain constant,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-16 Zhiheng Zhang , Wenbo Hu , Tian Tian , Jun Zhu

This article proposes a systematic methodological review and objective criticism of existing methods enabling the derivation of time-varying Granger-causality statistics in neuroscience. The increasing interest and the huge number of…

Applications · Statistics 2017-04-12 Sezen Cekic , Didier Grandjean , Olivier Renaud

According to the Stimulus Organism Response (SOR) theory, all human behavioral reactions are stimulated by context, where people will process the received stimulus and produce an appropriate reaction. This implies that in a specific context…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-24 Siyang Song , Micol Spitale , Yiming Luo , Batuhan Bal , Hatice Gunes

Causal inference is to estimate the causal effect in a causal relationship when intervention is applied. Precisely, in a causal model with binary interventions, i.e., control and treatment, the causal effect is simply the difference between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Zhenyu Lu , Yurong Cheng , Mingjun Zhong , George Stoian , Ye Yuan , Guoren Wang

In this paper we test for Granger causality in high-dimensional vector autoregressive models (VARs) to disentangle and interpret the complex causal chains linking radiative forcings and global temperatures. By allowing for high…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-04 Marina Friedrich , Luca Margaritella , Stephan Smeekes

While correlation measures are used to discern statistical relationships between observed variables in almost all branches of data-driven scientific inquiry, what we are really interested in is the existence of causal dependence. Designing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-06-26 Ishanu Chattopadhyay

Despite having achieved great success for sentiment analysis, existing neural models struggle with implicit sentiment analysis. This may be due to the fact that they may latch onto spurious correlations ("shortcuts", e.g., focusing only on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-08-22 Siyin Wang , Jie Zhou , Changzhi Sun , Junjie Ye , Tao Gui , Qi Zhang , Xuanjing Huang

In recent years, extensive research has emerged in affective computing on topics like automatic emotion recognition and determining the signals that characterize individual emotions. Much less studied, however, is expressiveness, or the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-12-11 Victoria Lin , Jeffrey M. Girard , Louis-Philippe Morency

This paper deals with the problem of evaluating the causal effect using observational data in the presence of an unobserved exposure/ outcome variable, when cause-effect relationships between variables can be described as a directed acyclic…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-06-18 Manabu Kuroki , Zhihong Cai