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In causal inference, estimating the average treatment effect is a central objective, and in the context of competing risks data, this effect can be quantified by the cause-specific cumulative incidence function (CIF) difference. While…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Yifei Tian , Ying Wu

Forecasting armed conflicts is a critical area of research with the potential to save lives and mitigate suffering. While existing forecasting models offer valuable point predictions, they often lack individual-level uncertainty estimates,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-14 David Randahl , Jonathan P. Williams , Håvard Hegre

Time-to-event analysis is a branch of statistics that has increased in popularity during the last decades due to its many application fields, such as predictive maintenance, customer churn prediction and population lifetime estimation. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-13 Camila Fernandez , Chung Shue Chen , Chen Pierre Gaillard , Alonso Silva

In this paper we provide a flexible framework allowing for a unified study of time consistency of risk measures and performance measures (also known as acceptability indices). The proposed framework not only integrates existing forms of…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-08 Tomasz R. Bielecki , Igor Cialenco , Marcin Pitera

Purpose: Health recommenders act as important decision support systems, aiding patients and medical professionals in taking actions that lead to patients' well-being. These systems extract the information which may be of particular…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Abhishek Dey , Debayan Goswami , Rahul Roy , Susmita Ghosh , Yu Shrike Zhang , Jonathan H. Chan

This paper addresses the problem of identifying and estimating the causal effect of a treatment in the presence of unmeasured confounding and various types of right-censoring. Examples of these censoring mechanisms are administrative…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-19 Ilias Willems , Sara Rutten , Gilles Crommen , Ingrid Van Keilegom

We introduce a new dynamic model with the capability of recognizing both activities that an individual is performing as well as where that ndividual is located. Our model is novel in that it utilizes a dynamic graphical model to jointly…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Amarnag Subramanya , Alvin Raj , Jeff A. Bilmes , Dieter Fox

Automatically evaluating the coherence of summaries is of great significance both to enable cost-efficient summarizer evaluation and as a tool for improving coherence by selecting high-scoring candidate summaries. While many different…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-09-16 Julius Steen , Katja Markert

With the rapid advances of deep learning, many computational methods have been developed to analyze nonlinear and complex right censored data via deep learning approaches. However, the majority of the methods focus on predicting survival…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-11 Jong-Hyeon Jeong , Yichen Jia

It can be difficult to assess the quality of a fitted model when facing unsupervised learning problems. Latent variable models, such as variation autoencoders and Gaussian mixture models, are often trained with likelihood-based approaches.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-16 Cédric Beaulac

Assessing whether two patient populations exhibit comparable event dynamics is essential for evaluating treatment equivalence, pooling data across cohorts, or comparing clinical pathways across hospitals or strategies. We introduce a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-10 Zoe Kristin Lange , Maryam Farhadizadeh , Holger Dette , Nadine Binder

Balancing safety and efficiency when planning in crowded scenarios with uncertain dynamics is challenging where it is imperative to accomplish the robot's mission without incurring any safety violations. Typically, chance constraints are…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Khaled A. Mustafa , Oscar de Groot , Xinwei Wang , Jens Kober , Javier Alonso-Mora

Predictor combination aims to improve a (target) predictor of a learning task based on the (reference) predictors of potentially relevant tasks, without having access to the internals of individual predictors. We present a new predictor…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-17 Kwang In Kim , Christian Richardt , Hyung Jin Chang

In studies of recurrent events, joint modeling approaches are often needed to allow for potential dependent censoring by a terminal event such as death. Joint frailty models for recurrent events and death with an additional dependence…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-25 Marie Böhnstedt , Jutta Gampe , Monique A. A. Caljouw , Hein Putter

Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data have seen many developments in recent years. Though spatial joint models are still rare and the traditional proportional hazards formulation of the time-to-event part of the model is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-25 Anja Rappl , Thomas Kneib , Stefan Lang , Elisabeth Bergherr

The comparison of alternative rankings of a set of items is a general and prominent task in applied statistics. Predictor variables are ranked according to magnitude of association with an outcome, prediction models rank subjects according…

The restricted mean survival time (RMST) is a widely used quantity in survival analysis due to its straightforward interpretation. For instance, predicting the time to event based on patient attributes is of great interest when analyzing…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-11 Ariane Cwiling , Vittorio Perduca , Olivier Bouaziz

Selective classification allows models to abstain from making predictions (e.g., say "I don't know") when in doubt in order to obtain better effective accuracy. While typical selective models can be effective at producing more accurate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-24 Adam Fisch , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

When machine learning supports decision-making in safety-critical systems, it is important to verify and understand the reasons why a particular output is produced. Although feature importance calculation approaches assist in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-14 Divish Rengasamy , Benjamin Rothwell , Grazziela Figueredo

In safety-critical applications a probabilistic model is usually required to be calibrated, i.e., to capture the uncertainty of its predictions accurately. In multi-class classification, calibration of the most confident predictions only is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-30 David Widmann , Fredrik Lindsten , Dave Zachariah