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The key concepts (calibration, discrimination, and discordance) important in understanding and comparing risk models are best conveyed graphically. To illustrate this, models predicting death and acute kidney injury in a large cohort of PCI…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2015-04-21 Ralph H. Stern , Dean E. Smith , Hitinder S. Gurm

Risk matrices are widely used across a range of fields and have found increasing utility in warning decision practices globally. However, their application in this context presents challenges, which range from potentially perverse warning…

Applications · Statistics 2025-08-29 Robert J. Taggart , David J. Wilke

Joint models for longitudinal and survival data have become a popular framework for studying the association between repeatedly measured biomarkers and clinical events. Nevertheless, addressing complex survival data structures, especially…

Investigating the causal relationship between exposure and the time-to-event outcome is an important topic in biomedical research. Previous literature has discussed the potential issues of using the hazard ratio as a marginal causal effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-05 Zihan Lin , Ai Ni , Bo Lu

Conformal prediction is a statistically rigorous method for quantifying uncertainty in models by having them output sets of predictions, with larger sets indicating more uncertainty. However, prediction sets are not inherently actionable;…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Jesse C. Cresswell , Bhargava Kumar , Yi Sui , Mouloud Belbahri

This article considers the joint modeling of longitudinal covariates and partly-interval censored time-to-event data. Longitudinal time-varying covariates play a crucial role in obtaining accurate clinically relevant predictions using a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-05 Annabel Webb , Nan Zou , Serigne Lo , Jun Ma

We consider a joint survival and mixed-effects model to explain the survival time from longitudinal data and high-dimensional covariates in a population. The longitudinal data is modeled using a non linear mixed-effects model to account for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-06 Antoine Caillebotte , Estelle Kuhn , Sarah Lemler

While advanced classifiers have been increasingly used in real-world safety-critical applications, how to properly evaluate the black-box models given specific human values remains a concern in the community. Such human values include…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Yanyun Wang , Dehui Du , Yuanhao Liu

The predictiveness curve is a valuable tool for predictive evaluation, risk stratification, and threshold selection in a target population, given a single biomarker or a prediction model. In the presence of competing risks, regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-04 Wei Tao , Jing Ning , Wen Li , Wenyaw Chan , Xi Luo , Ruosha Li

Before new clinical measurement methods are implemented in clinical practice, it must be confirmed whether their results are equivalent to those of existing methods. The agreement of the trend between these methods is evaluated using the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-01 Mayu Hiraishi , Kensuke Tanioka , Toshio Shimokawa

Observational studies of treatment effects require adjustment for confounding variables. However, causal inference methods typically cannot deliver perfect adjustment on all measured baseline variables, and there is often ambiguity about…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-16 Lauren D. Liao , Yeyi Zhu , Amanda L. Ngo , Rana F. Chehab , Samuel D. Pimentel

Balanced representation learning methods have been applied successfully to counterfactual inference from observational data. However, approaches that account for survival outcomes are relatively limited. Survival data are frequently…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-04 Paidamoyo Chapfuwa , Serge Assaad , Shuxi Zeng , Michael J. Pencina , Lawrence Carin , Ricardo Henao

Survival analysis is a statistical technique used to estimate the time until an event occurs. Although it is applied across a wide range of fields, adjusting for reporting delays under practical constraints remains a significant challenge…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-27 Yuta Shikuri , Hironori Fujisawa

Joint models of longitudinal and event-time data have been extensively studied and applied in many different fields. Estimation of joint models is challenging, most present procedures are computational expensive and have a strict…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-05 Yanqiao Zheng , Xiaobing Zhao , Xiaoqi Zhang

Complex data features, such as unmodelled censored event times and variables with time-dependent effects, are common in cancer recurrence studies and pose challenges for Bayesian survival modelling. Current methodologies for predictive…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-12 Saku Suorsa , Aki Vehtari

Despite the development of ranking optimization techniques, pointwise loss remains the dominating approach for click-through rate prediction. It can be attributed to the calibration ability of the pointwise loss since the prediction can be…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-05-30 Xiang-Rong Sheng , Jingyue Gao , Yueyao Cheng , Siran Yang , Shuguang Han , Hongbo Deng , Yuning Jiang , Jian Xu , Bo Zheng

One straightforward metric to evaluate a survival prediction model is based on the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) -- the average of the absolute difference between the time predicted by the model and the true event time, over all subjects.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-05 Shi-ang Qi , Neeraj Kumar , Mahtab Farrokh , Weijie Sun , Li-Hao Kuan , Rajesh Ranganath , Ricardo Henao , Russell Greiner

Many studies employ the analysis of time-to-event data that incorporates competing risks and right censoring. Most methods and software packages are geared towards analyzing data that comes from a continuous failure time distribution.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-06 Tomer Meir , Malka Gorfine

Increasing evidence suggests that variability in longitudinal biomarkers, in addition to their mean trajectory, carries prognostic information for time-to-event outcomes. However, standard joint models typically capture only the expected…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Felix Boakye Oppong , Dimitris Rizopoulos , Thierry Gorlia , Nicole Erler

Accurately predicting the time of occurrence of an event of interest is a critical problem in longitudinal data analysis. One of the main challenges in this context is the presence of instances whose event outcomes become unobservable after…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-12-26 Ping Wang , Yan Li , Chandan K. Reddy