Related papers: Persistence exponents via perturbation theory: AR(…

For the moving average process $X_n=\rho \xi_{n-1}+\xi_n$, $n\in\mathbb{N}$, where $\rho\in\mathbb{R}$ and $(\xi_i)_{i\ge -1}$ is an i.i.d. sequence of normally distributed random variables, we study the persistence probabilities…

Given an autoregressive process X of order p (i.e. X_n = a_1 X_{n-1} + ...+ a_p X_{n_p} + Y_n where the random variables Y_1, Y_2, ... are i.i.d.), we study the asymptotic behaviour of the probability that the process does not exceed a…

We prove the existence of the persistence exponent $$\log\lambda:=\lim_{n\to\infty}\frac{1}{n}\log \mathbb{P}_\mu(X_0\in S,\ldots,X_n\in S)$$ for a class of time homogeneous Markov chains $\{X_i\}_{i\geq 0}$ taking values in a Polish space,…

We introduce the concept of `discrete-time persistence', which deals with zero-crossings of a continuous stochastic process, X(T), measured at discrete times, T = n \Delta T. For a Gaussian Markov process with relaxation rate \mu, we show…

We study the persistence probabilities of a moving average process of order one with uniform innovations. We identify a number of regions, characterized by the location of the uniform distribution and the coupling parameter of the process,…

We consider the problem of `discrete-time persistence', which deals with the zero-crossings of a continuous stochastic process, X(T), measured at discrete times, T = n(\Delta T). For a Gaussian Stationary Process the persistence (no…

Iteration of randomly chosen quadratic maps defines a Markov process: X_{n+1}=\epsilon_{n+1}X_n(1-X_n), where \epsilon_n are i.i.d. with values in the parameter space [0,4] of quadratic maps F_{\theta}(x)=\theta x(1-x). Its study is of…

We obtain complementary recurrence and transience criteria for processes $X=(X_n)_{n \ge 0}$ with values in $\mathbb R^d_+$ fulfilling a non-linear equation $X_{n+1}=MX_n+g(X_n)+ \xi_{n+1}$. Here $M$ denotes a primitive matrix having…

Persistence, defined as the probability that a fluctuating signal has not reached a threshold up to a given observation time, plays a crucial role in the theory of random processes. It quantifies the kinetics of processes as varied as phase…

We consider an arbitrary Gaussian Stationary Process X(T) with known correlator C(T), sampled at discrete times T_n = n \Delta T. The probability that (n+1) consecutive values of X have the same sign decays as P_n \sim \exp(-\theta_D T_n).…

We study the persistence probabilities of a moving average process of order one with innovations that follow a Laplace distribution. The persistence probabilities can be computed fully explicitly in terms of classical combinatorial…

We study the probability that an AR(1) Markov chain $X_{n+1}=aX_n+\xi_{n+1}$, where $a\in(0,1)$ is a constant, stays non-negative for a long time. We find the exact asymptotics of this probability and the weak limit of $X_n$ conditioned to…

We study the persistence probability for some discrete-time, time-reversible processes. In particular, we deduce the persistence exponent in a number of examples: first, we deal with random walks in random sceneries (RWRS) in any dimension…

Let $\{X_n\}_{n\ge0}$ be a sequence of real valued random variables such that $X_n=\rho_n X_{n-1}+\epsilon_n,~n=1,2,\ldots$, where $\{(\rho_n,\epsilon_n)\}_{n\ge1}$ are i.i.d. and independent of initial value (possibly random) $X_0$. In…

Suppose the auto-correlations of real-valued, centered Gaussian process $Z(\cdot)$ are non-negative and decay as $\rho(|s-t|)$ for some $\rho(\cdot)$ regularly varying at infinity of order $-\alpha \in [-1,0)$. With $I_\rho(t)=\int_0^t…

We establish exact formulae for the persistence probabilities of an AR(1) sequence with symmetric uniform innovations in terms of certain families of polynomials, most notably a family introduced by Mallows and Riordan as enumerators of…

In this paper, we present the detailed calculation of the persistence exponent $\theta$ for a nearly-Markovian Gaussian process $X(t)$, a problem initially introduced in [Phys. Rev. Lett. 77, 1420 (1996)], describing the probability that…

The persistence of a stochastic variable is the probability that it does not cross a given level during a fixed time interval. Although persistence is a simple concept to understand, it is in general hard to calculate. Here we consider zero…

Given a stationary first-order autoregressive process X_t (with lag-one correlation rho satisfying |rho|<1), we examine the Central Limit Theorem for (1/n)*ln |X_1...X_n| and compute variances to high precision. Given a nonstationary…

The persistence exponent, which characterises the long-time decay of the survival probability of stochastic processes in the presence of an absorbing target, plays a key role in quantifying the dynamics of fluctuating systems. Determining…