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We use a decision-theoretic framework to study the problem of forecasting discrete outcomes when the forecaster is unable to discriminate among a set of plausible forecast distributions because of partial identification or concerns about…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-12-18 Timothy Christensen , Hyungsik Roger Moon , Frank Schorfheide

A long-standing debate is whether social influence improves the collective wisdom of a crowd or undermines it. This paper addresses this question based on a naive learning setting in influence systems theory: in our models individuals…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Ye Tian , Long Wang , Francesco Bullo

Crowdsourcing is a process of accumulating the ideas, thoughts or information from many independent participants, with aim to find the best solution for a given challenge. Modern information technologies allow for massive number of subjects…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-04-04 Andrea Guazzini , Daniele Vilone , Camillo Donati , Annalisa Nardi , Zoran Levnajic

In this study, we build on previous research to understand the conditions within which the Wisdom of the Crowd (WoC) improves or worsens as a result of showing individuals the predictions of their peers. Our main novel contributions are: 1)…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-01-01 Dhaval Adjodah , Shi Kai Chong , Yan Leng , Peter Krafft , Alex Pentland

Crowdsourcing has evolved as an organizational approach to distributed problem solving and innovation. As contests are embedded in online communities and evaluation rights are assigned to the crowd, community members face a tension: they…

General Economics · Economics 2024-04-23 Christoph Riedl , Tom Grad , Christopher Lettl

We study distributed knowledge, which is what privately informed agents come to know by communicating freely with one another and sharing everything they know. Knowledge is not necessarily partitional: agents may be boundedly rational and…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-05-13 Michele Crescenzi

Can crowd workers be trusted to judge whether news-like articles circulating on the Internet are misleading, or does partisanship and inexperience get in the way? And can the task be structured in a way that reduces partisanship? We…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2023-05-30 Paul Resnick , Aljohara Alfayez , Jane Im , Eric Gilbert

It is universal to see people obtain knowledge on micro-blog services by asking others decision making questions. In this paper, we study the Jury Selection Problem(JSP) by utilizing crowdsourcing for decision making tasks on micro-blog…

Databases · Computer Science 2012-08-02 Caleb Chen Cao , Jieying She , Yongxin Tong , Lei Chen

Experts' beliefs embody a present state of knowledge. It is desirable to take this knowledge into account when doing analyses or making decisions. Yet ranking experts based on the merit of their beliefs is a difficult task. In this paper we…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-10 Duco Veen , Diederick Stoel , Naomi Schalken , Rens van de Schoot

Sentiment classification is a fundamental task in content analysis. Although deep learning has demonstrated promising performance in text classification compared with shallow models, it is still not able to train a satisfying classifier for…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2020-04-28 Keyu Yang , Yunjun Gao , Lei Liang , Song Bian , Lu Chen , Baihua Zheng

Judgment aggregation problems form a class of collective decision-making problems represented in an abstract way, subsuming some well known problems such as voting. A collective decision can be reached in many ways, but a direct one-step…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-08-30 Marija Slavkovik , Wojciech Jamroga

Hierarchies of concepts are useful in many applications from navigation to organization of objects. Usually, a hierarchy is created in a centralized manner by employing a group of domain experts, a time-consuming and expensive process. The…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-08-04 Yuyin Sun , Adish Singla , Dieter Fox , Andreas Krause

A clinical study is often necessary for exploring important research questions; however, this approach is sometimes time and money consuming. Another extreme approach, which is to collect and aggregate opinions from crowds, provides a…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2022-05-17 Shoko Wakamiya , Toshiki Mera , Eiji Aramaki , Masaki Matsubara , Atsuyuki Morishima

This papers presents a deep learning-based framework to predict crowdsourced service availability spatially and temporally. A novel two-stage prediction model is introduced based on historical spatio-temporal traces of mobile crowdsourced…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-09-05 Ahmed Ben Said , Abdelkarim Erradi , Azadeh Ghari Neiat , Athman Bouguettaya

Elections involving a very large voter population often lead to outcomes that surprise many. This is particularly important for the elections in which results affect the economy of a sizable population. A better prediction of the true…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2018-01-31 Palash Dey , Pravesh K. Kothari , Swaprava Nath

With the increased interest in machine learning and big data problems, the need for large amounts of labelled data has also grown. However, it is often infeasible to get experts to label all of this data, which leads many practitioners to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-31 Pierce Burke , Richard Klein

Crowd behaviour analysis is essential to numerous real-world applications, such as public safety and urban planning, and therefore has been studied for decades. In the last decade or so, the development of deep learning has significantly…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Jiangbei Yue , He Wang

Allowing members of the crowd to propose novel microtasks for one another is an effective way to combine the efficiencies of traditional microtask work with the inventiveness and hypothesis generation potential of human workers. However,…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2020-12-23 Abigail Hotaling , James P. Bagrow

This paper forges a strong connection between two seemingly unrelated forecasting problems: incentive-compatible forecast elicitation and forecast aggregation. Proper scoring rules are the well-known solution to the former problem. To each…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Eric Neyman , Tim Roughgarden

Truthfulness judgments are a fundamental step in the process of fighting misinformation, as they are crucial to train and evaluate classifiers that automatically distinguish true and false statements. Usually such judgments are made by…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2020-06-26 Kevin Roitero , Michael Soprano , Shaoyang Fan , Damiano Spina , Stefano Mizzaro , Gianluca Demartini
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