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Many recently developed Bayesian methods have focused on sparse signal detection. However, much less work has been done addressing the natural follow-up question: how to make valid inferences for the magnitude of those signals after…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-02 Spencer Woody , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , James G. Scott

Citizen science databases that consist of volunteer-led sampling efforts of species communities are relied on as essential sources of data in ecology. Summarizing such data across counties with frequentist-valid prediction sets for each…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-28 Elizabeth Bersson , Peter D. Hoff

Frequentist-style large-sample properties of Bayesian posterior distributions, such as consistency and convergence rates, are important considerations in nonparametric problems. In this paper we give an analysis of Bayesian asymptotics…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-10-02 Ryan Martin , Liang Hong

Our confidence set quantifies the statistical uncertainty from data-driven group assignments in grouped panel models. It covers the true group memberships jointly for all units with pre-specified probability and is constructed by inverting…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-28 Andreas Dzemski , Ryo Okui

In this paper, we investigate the asymptotic properties of nonparametric Bayesian mixtures of Betas for estimating a smooth density on $[0,1]$. We consider a parametrization of Beta distributions in terms of mean and scale parameters and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-01-12 Judith Rousseau

How might a smooth probability distribution be estimated, with accurately quantified uncertainty, from a limited amount of sampled data? Here we describe a field-theoretic approach that addresses this problem remarkably well in one…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-10-24 Wei-Chia Chen , Ammar Tareen , Justin B. Kinney

We propose using a Bayes procedure with uniform improper prior to determine credible belts for the mean of a Poisson distribution in the presence of background and for the continuous problem of measuring a non-negative quantity $\theta$…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2009-10-31 Byron P. Roe , Michael B. Woodroofe

Asymptotic uniform confidence bands are constructed for a multivariate nonparametric regression model with heteroscedastic noise, employing histogram estimators under flexible partition conditions. The construction is especially applicable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-02 Natalie Neumeyer , Jan Rabe , Mathias Trabs

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Tim Pearce , Felix Leibfried , Alexandra Brintrup , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

To the frequentist who computes posteriors, not all priors are useful asymptotically: in this paper Schwartz's 1965 Kullback-Leibler condition is generalised to enable frequentist interpretation of convergence of posterior distributions…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-28 B. J. K. Kleijn

We introduce a framework for estimating causal effects of binary and continuous treatments in high dimensions. We show how posterior distributions of treatment and outcome models can be used together with doubly robust estimators. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-06 Joseph Antonelli , Georgia Papadogeorgou , Francesca Dominici

This paper studies the bounded confidence model on growing fully-mixed populations. In this model, in addition to the usual opinion clusters, significant secondary clusters of smaller size appear systematically, while those secondary…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-02-20 Yérali Gandica , Guillaume Deffuant

We study the behavior of the posterior distribution in high-dimensional Bayesian Gaussian linear regression models having $p\gg n$, with $p$ the number of predictors and $n$ the sample size. Our focus is on obtaining quantitative finite…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-01-06 Nate Strawn , Artin Armagan , Rayan Saab , Lawrence Carin , David Dunson

In community detection, the exact recovery of communities (clusters) has been mainly investigated under the general stochastic block model with edges drawn from Bernoulli distributions. This paper considers the exact recovery of communities…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-02-09 Mohammad Esmaeili , Aria Nosratinia

The class of Cressie-Read empirical likelihoods are constructed with weights derived at a minimum distance from the empirical distribution in the Cressie-Read family of divergences indexed by $\gamma$ under the constraint of an unbiased set…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-03 Laura Turbatu

Clustering is widely studied in statistics and machine learning, with applications in a variety of fields. As opposed to classical algorithms which return a single clustering solution, Bayesian nonparametric models provide a posterior over…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-11 Sara Wade , Zoubin Ghahramani

Sample size criteria are often expressed in terms of the concentration of the posterior density, as controlled by some sort of error bound. Since this is done pre-experimentally, one can regard the posterior density as a function of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 B. Clarke , Ao Yuan

We investigate the asymptotic behavior of Bayesian posterior distributions under independent and identically distributed ($i.i.d.$) misspecified models. More specifically, we study the concentration of the posterior distribution on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-04 R. V. Ramamoorthi , Karthik Sriram , Ryan Martin

Mixture model-based frameworks are very popular for statistical inference in clustering. While convenient for producing probabilistic estimates of cluster assignments and uncertainty, they are prone to misspecification, which can lead to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-15 Yu Zheng , Leo L. Duan , Arkaprava Roy

The problem of constructing confidence sets in the high-dimensional linear model with $n$ response variables and $p$ parameters, possibly $p\ge n$, is considered. Full honest adaptive inference is possible if the rate of sparse estimation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-19 Richard Nickl , Sara van de Geer