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Rapid changes in Earth's cryosphere caused by human activity can lead to significant environmental impacts. Computer models provide a useful tool for understanding the behavior and projecting the future of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets.…
Computer simulation models are widely used to study complex physical systems. A related fundamental topic is the inverse problem, also called calibration, which aims at learning about the values of parameters in the model based on…
Computer model calibration involves using partial and imperfect observations of the real world to learn which values of a model's input parameters lead to outputs that are consistent with real-world observations. When calibrating models…
In the context of computer models, calibration is the process of estimating unknown simulator parameters from observational data. Calibration is variously referred to as model fitting, parameter estimation/inference, an inverse problem, and…
Climate simulations, at all grid resolutions, rely on approximations that encapsulate the forcing due to unresolved processes on resolved variables, known as parameterizations. Parameterizations often lead to inaccuracies in climate models,…
Sea ice motions play an important role in the polar climate system by transporting pollutants, heat, water and salt as well as changing the ice cover. Numerous physics-based models have been constructed to represent the sea ice dynamical…
Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and…
Rapid retreat of ice in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica may cause drastic sea level rise, posing significant risks to populations in low-lying coastal regions. Calibration of computer models representing the behavior of the West…
Sea ice, or frozen ocean water, freezes and melts every year in the Arctic. Forecasts of where sea ice will be located weeks to months in advance have become more important as the amount of sea ice declines due to climate change, for…
Sea ice plays a crucial role in the climate system, particularly in the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ), a transitional area consisting of fragmented ice between the open ocean and consolidated pack ice. As the MIZ expands, understanding its…
Standard methods in computer model calibration treat the calibration parameters as constant throughout the domain of control inputs. In many applications, systematic variation may cause the best values for the calibration parameters to…
Sea ice concentration is an important metric used to characterize polar sea ice behavior. Understanding this behavior and accurately representing it is of critical importance for climate science research, and also has important uses in the…
Snow is a crucial element of the sea ice system, affecting sea ice growth and decay due to its low thermal conductivity and high albedo. Despite its importance, present-day climate models have an idealized representation of snow, often…
Bayesian calibration of computer models tunes unknown input parameters by comparing outputs with observations. For model outputs that are distributed over space, this becomes computationally expensive because of the output size. To overcome…
Sea ice is highly complex due to the inhomogeneity of the physical properties (e.g. temperature and salinity) as well as the permeability and mixture of water and a matrix of sea ice and/or sea ice crystals. Such complexity has proven…
Computer models are commonly used to represent a wide range of real systems, but they often involve some unknown parameters. Estimating the parameters by collecting physical data becomes essential in many scientific fields, ranging from…
Recent rapid loss of the Arctic sea ice motivates the study of the Arctic sea ice thickness. Global climate model that describes the ice's thickness evolution requires an accurate spatial temperature profile of the Arctic sea ice. However,…
The diminishing extent of Arctic sea ice is a key indicator of climate change as well as an accelerant for future global warming. Since 1978, Arctic sea ice has been measured using satellite-based microwave sensing; however, different…
Sea ice plays a critical role in the global climate system and maritime operations, making timely and accurate classification essential. However, traditional manual methods are time-consuming, costly, and have inherent biases. Automating…
As Arctic conditions rapidly change, human activity in the Arctic will continue to increase and so will the need for high-resolution observations of sea ice. While satellite imagery can provide high spatial resolution, it is temporally…