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A general criterion is given for when a Markov chain trapped with probability p(x) in state x will be almost surely trapped. The quenched (state x is a trap forever with probability p(x)) and annealed (state x traps with probability p(x) on…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-07 Robin Pemantle , Stanislav Volkov

This paper studies Markov chains on the chambers of real hyperplane arrangements, a model that generalizes famous examples, such as the Tsetlin library and riffle shuffles. We discuss cutoff for the Tsetlin library for general weights, and…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-04 Evita Nestoridi

We consider two approaches to study non-reversible Markov processes, namely the Hypocoercivity Theory (HT) and GENERIC (General Equations for Non-Equilibrium Reversible-Irreversible Coupling); the basic idea behind both of them is to split…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-25 Manh Hong Duong , Michela Ottobre

We investigate the sharpness of the spectral profile bound presented by Goel et al. and Chen et al. on the $L^{2}$ mixing time of Markov chains on continuous state spaces. We show that the bound provided by Chen et al. is sharp up to a…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-18 Elnaz Karimian Sichani , Aaron Smith

We study the Markov chain on $\mathbf{F}_p$ obtained by applying a function $f$ and adding $\pm\gamma$ with equal probability. When $f$ is a linear function, this is the well-studied Chung--Diaconis--Graham process. We consider two cases:…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-08 Jimmy He

In this paper we prove two results. First we show that dynamical systems with a $\phi$-mixing measure have in the limit Poisson distributed return times almost everywhere. We use the Chen-Stein method to also obtain rates of convergence.…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2014-02-18 Nicolai T A Haydn , Yannis Psiloyenis

We consider evaluation of proper posterior distributions obtained from improper prior distributions. Our context is estimating a bounded function $\phi$ of a parameter when the loss is quadratic. If the posterior mean of $\phi$ is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-11-10 Morris L. Eaton , James P. Hobert , Galin L. Jones , Wen-Lin Lai

We present a new algorithm for the statistical model checking of Markov chains with respect to unbounded temporal properties, such as reachability and full linear temporal logic. The main idea is that we monitor each simulation run on the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2016-03-04 Przemysław Daca , Thomas A. Henzinger , Jan Křetínský , Tatjana Petrov

We study a class of Markov chains that describe reversible stochastic dynamics of a large class of disordered mean field models at low temperatures. Our main purpose is to give a precise relation between the metastable time scales in the…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2016-08-31 A. Bovier , M. Eckhoff , V. Gayrard , M. Klein

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a class of algorithms to sample complex and high-dimensional probability distributions. The Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm, the workhorse of MCMC, provides a simple recipe to construct reversible…

We present a recurrence-transience classification for discrete-time Markov chains on manifolds with negative curvature. Our classification depends only on geometric quantities associated to the increments of the chain, defined via the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-10 John Armstrong , Tim King

A survey of a variety of computational procedures for finding the mean first passage times in Markov chains is presented. The author recently developed a new accurate computational technique, an Extended GTH Procedure, Hunter (Special…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-05-11 Jeffrey J Hunter

We study quantitative recurrence to rare events in Countable Markov Shifts with recurrent potentials, focusing on return-time statistics to natural target sets for every point. In the positive recurrent case, return-time processes…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-12-16 Dylan Bansard-Tresse

The analysis of many problems of interest associated with Markov chains, e.g. stationary distributions, moments of first passage time distributions and moments of occupation time random variables, involves the solution of a system of linear…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-08-29 Jeffrey J. Hunter

This paper is a variation on the uniform spanning tree theme. We use random spanning forests to solve the following problem: for a Markov process on a finite set of size $n$, find a probability law on the subsets of any given size $m \leq…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-01 Luca Avena , Alexandre Gaudillière

We survey existing techniques to bound the mixing time of Markov chains. The mixing time is related to a geometric parameter called conductance which is a measure of edge-expansion. Bounds on conductance are typically obtained by a…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2016-03-07 Venkatesan Guruswami

By proving a local limit theorem for higher-order transitions, we determine the time required for necklace chains to be close to stationarity. Because necklace chains, built by arranging identical smaller chains around a directed cycle, are…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-22 Elizabeth L. Wilmer

The abelian sandpile model defines a Markov chain whose states are integer-valued functions on the vertices of a simple connected graph $G$. By viewing this chain as a (nonreversible) random walk on an abelian group, we give a formula for…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-16 Daniel C. Jerison , Lionel Levine , John Pike

Let $X$ be a finite set and let $G$ be a finite group acting on $X$. The group action splits $X$ into disjoint orbits. The Burnside process is a Markov chain on $X$ which has a uniform stationary distribution when the chain is lumped to…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-23 J. E. Paguyo

Markov chains in random environments (MCREs) have recently attracted renewed interest, as these processes naturally arise in many applications, such as econometrics and machine learning. Although specific asymptotic results, such as the law…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-22 Attila Lovas , Lionel Truquet
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