English

Evaluation of Formal posterior distributions via Markov chain arguments

Statistics Theory 2008-11-10 v2 Probability Statistics Theory

Abstract

We consider evaluation of proper posterior distributions obtained from improper prior distributions. Our context is estimating a bounded function ϕ\phi of a parameter when the loss is quadratic. If the posterior mean of ϕ\phi is admissible for all bounded ϕ\phi, the posterior is strongly admissible. We give sufficient conditions for strong admissibility. These conditions involve the recurrence of a Markov chain associated with the estimation problem. We develop general sufficient conditions for recurrence of general state space Markov chains that are also of independent interest. Our main example concerns the pp-dimensional multivariate normal distribution with mean vector θ\theta when the prior distribution has the form g(θ2)dθg(\|\theta\|^2) d\theta on the parameter space Rp\mathbb{R}^p. Conditions on gg for strong admissibility of the posterior are provided.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.math/0701938,
  title  = {Evaluation of Formal posterior distributions via Markov chain arguments},
  author = {Morris L. Eaton and James P. Hobert and Galin L. Jones and Wen-Lin Lai},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:math/0701938},
  year   = {2008}
}

Comments

Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOS542 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)