Related papers: Fire seasonality identification with multimodality…
The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…
One of the most used metrics to gauge the effects of climate change is the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the long-term (equilibrium) temperature increase resulting from instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$. Since…
Spatiotemporal variations in thunderstorm occurrence frequency are considered here using an environmental dataset derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. Interannual variability in the thunderstorm environments is examined for the period…
We propose a non-steady state model of the global temperature change. The model describes Earth's surface temperature dynamics under main climate forcing. The equations were derived from basic physical relationships and detailed assessment…
We use a well known model (T. Vicsek et al. Phys Rev Lett 15, 1226 (1995)) for flocking to test mutual information as a tool for detecting order-disorder transitions, in particular when observations of the system are limited. We show that…
We study the evacuation dynamics of a crowd evacuating from a complex geometry in the presence of a fire as well as of a slowly spreading smoke curtain. The crowd is composed of two kinds of individuals: those who know the layout of the…
Fires and rainfall are major mechanisms that regulate woody and grassy biomasses in savanna ecosystems. Conditions of long-lasting coexistence of trees and grasses have been mainly studied using continuous-time modelling of tree-grass…
Sensitivity analysis is widely used to assess the robustness of causal conclusions in observational studies, yet its interaction with the structure of measured covariates is often overlooked. When latent confounders cannot be directly…
Dynamical weather and climate prediction models underpin many studies of the Earth system and hold the promise of being able to make robust projections of future climate change based on physical laws. However, simulations from these models…
Observations of Type Ia supernovae used to map the expansion history of the Universe suffer from systematic uncertainties that need to be propagated into the estimates of cosmological parameters. We propose an iterative Monte-Carlo…
Accurate spatiotemporal modeling of conditions leading to moderate and large wildfires provides better understanding of mechanisms driving fire-prone ecosystems and improves risk management. We here develop a joint model for the occurrence…
Astroparticle physics and cosmology allow us to scan the universe through multiple messengers. It is the combination of these probes that improves our understanding of the universe, both in its composition and its dynamics. Unlike other…
Event attribution in the context of climate change seeks to understand the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on extreme weather events, either specific events or classes of events. A common approach to event attribution uses…
Lotka Volterra model and its modified forms have long become a major area of interest for periodic motions in nonlinear systems with competitive species. The model given by Volterra shows that its periodicity is dependent on initial…
Many real-world situations of ethical and economic relevance, such as collective (in)action with respect to the climate crisis, involve not only diverse agents whose decisions interact in complicated ways, but also various forms of…
Seasonality of acute viral respiratory diseases is a well-known and yet not fully understood phenomenon. Several models have been proposed to explain the regularity of yearly recurring outbreaks and the phase-differences observed at…
Humans have been able to tackle biosphere complexities by acting as ecosystem engineers, profoundly changing the flows of matter, energy and information. This includes major innovations that allowed to reduce and control the impact of…
This article primarily aims to unify the various formalisms of multivariate coefficients of variation, leveraging advanced concepts of generalized means, whether weighted or not, applied to the eigenvalues of covariance matrices. We…
Social dilemmas where the good of a group is at odds with individual interests are usually considered as static -- the dilemma does not change over time. In the COVID-19 pandemic, social dilemmas occurred in the mitigation of epidemic…
The level-set method is a prominent approach to modelling the evolution of a fire over time based on a characterised rate of spread. It however does not provide a direct means for assimilating new data and quantifying uncertainty. Fire…