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Models for wildfires must be stochastic if their ability to represent wildfires is to be objectively assessed. The need for models to be stochastic emerges naturally from the physics of the fire, and methods for assessing fit are…

It is commonplace to encounter nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process may change over time or across domains. The nonstationarity presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper we…

Periodic and semi periodic patterns are very common in nature. In this paper we introduce a topological toolbox aiming in detecting and quantifying periodicity. The presented technique is of a general nature and may be employed wherever…

This paper develops mathematical tools to estimate seasonal changes in measles transmission rates and corresponding variation in population susceptibility. The tools are designed to leverage times series of cases in the absence of…

What is certain is that surface temperatures around the globe vary considerably, regardless of the time scales or underlying causes. Since 1850, we have observed an average increase in global surface temperature anomalies of 1.2$^{\circ}$…

Causal inference in a nonlinear system of multivariate timeseries is instrumental in disentangling the intricate web of relationships among variables, enabling us to make more accurate predictions and gain deeper insights into real-world…

Real-world systems are often complex, dynamic, and nonlinear. Understanding the dynamics of a system from its observed time series is key to the prediction and control of the system's behavior. While most existing techniques tacitly assume…

Wildfire frequency is increasing as the climate changes, and the resulting air pollution poses health risks. Just as people routinely use hourly weather forecasts to plan their day's activities around precipitation, reliable hourly air…

Afforestation greatly influences several earth system processes, making it essential to understand these effects to accurately assess its potential for climate change mitigation. Although our understanding of forest-climate system…

Wildfires are uncontrolled fires in the environment that can be caused by humans or nature. In 2020 alone, wildfires in California have burned 4.2 million acres, damaged 10,500 buildings or structures, and killed more than 31 people,…

Recently, there has been growing interest in incorporating textual information into foundation models for time series forecasting. However, it remains unclear whether and under what conditions such multimodal integration consistently yields…

The COVID-19 pandemic response relied heavily on statistical and machine learning models to predict key outcomes such as case prevalence and fatality rates. These predictions were instrumental in enabling timely public health interventions…

We show that probabilistic weather forecasts of site specific temperatures can be dramatically improved by using seasonally varying rather than constant calibration parameters.

In recent years wildfires have caused havoc across the world, especially aggravated in certain regions, due to climate change. Remote sensing has become a powerful tool for monitoring fires, as well as for measuring their effects on…

The evaluation of climate models is a crucial step in climate studies. It consists of quantifying the resemblance of model outputs to reference data to identify models with superior capacity to replicate specific climate variables. Clearly,…

A new method is proposed to explore sources of cross-site impact variance in multi-site trials of social interventions. With this approach, aggregate reports from participants in the treatment arm about the treatment experience are used to…

Multivariate time series in domains such as finance, climate science, and healthcare often exhibit long-term trends, seasonal patterns, and short-term fluctuations, complicating causal inference under non-stationarity and autocorrelation.…

Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality…

With the recent discoveries of hundreds of extrasolar planets, the search for planets like Earth and life in the universe, is quickly gaining momentum. In the future, large space observatories could directly detect the light scattered from…

Multiple changes in Earth's climate system have been observed over the past decades. Determining how likely each of these changes are to have been caused by human influence, is important for decision making on mitigation and adaptation…