Related papers: Monte Carlo Dependency Estimation
We present novel Monte Carlo (MC) and multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods to determine the unbiased covariance of random variables using h-statistics. The advantage of this procedure lies in the unbiased construction of the estimator's…
McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equations (MVSDEs) describe systems whose dynamics depend on both individual states and the population distribution, and they arise widely in neuroscience, finance, and epidemiology. In many…
The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has proven to be an effective variance-reduction statistical method for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models, combining model computations at different levels…
Detecting changes is of fundamental importance when analyzing data streams and has many applications, e.g., in predictive maintenance, fraud detection, or medicine. A principled approach to detect changes is to compare the distributions of…
The paper presents a new copula based method for measuring dependence between random variables. Our approach extends the Maximum Mean Discrepancy to the copula of the joint distribution. We prove that this approach has several advantageous…
Several recent works have proposed instance-dependent upper bounds on the number of episodes needed to identify, with probability $1-\delta$, an $\varepsilon$-optimal policy in finite-horizon tabular Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). These…
We develop a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework for uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo dropout. Treating dropout masks as a source of epistemic randomness, we define a fidelity hierarchy by the number of stochastic forward…
We consider Markov decision processes (MDPs) in which the transition probabilities and rewards belong to an uncertainty set parametrized by a collection of random variables. The probability distributions for these random parameters are…
Understanding and developing a correlation measure that can detect general dependencies is not only imperative to statistics and machine learning, but also crucial to general scientific discovery in the big data age. In this paper, we…
The aim of this paper is to describe a new an integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies.…
In this paper, we focus on the problem of statistical dependence estimation using characteristic functions. We propose a statistical dependence measure, based on the maximum-norm of the difference between joint and product-marginal…
In this paper, we begin our discussion with some of the well-known methods available in the literature for the estimation of the parameters of a univariate/multivariate stable distribution. Based on the available methods, a new hybrid…
Low-fidelity wake models are used for wind farm design and control optimization. To generalize to a wind farm model, individually-modeled wakes are commonly superimposed using approximate superposition models. Wake models parameterize…
Multivariate processes with long-range dependent properties are found in a large number of applications including finance, geophysics and neuroscience. For real data applications, the correlation between time series is crucial. Usual…
We consider Monte Carlo approximations to the maximum likelihood estimator in models with intractable norming constants. This paper deals with adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms, which adjust control parameters in the course of simulation. We…
Many machine learning problems involve Monte Carlo gradient estimators. As a prominent example, we focus on Monte Carlo variational inference (MCVI) in this paper. The performance of MCVI crucially depends on the variance of its stochastic…
Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
Metamodels, or the regression analysis of Monte Carlo simulation results, provide a powerful tool to summarize simulation findings. However, an underutilized approach is the multilevel metamodel (MLMM) that accounts for the dependent data…
In various practical situations, we encounter data from stochastic processes which can be efficiently modelled by an appropriate parametric model for subsequent statistical analyses. Unfortunately, the most common estimation and inference…
Many event sequence data exhibit mutually exciting or inhibiting patterns. Reliable detection of such temporal dependency is crucial for scientific investigation. The de facto model is the Multivariate Hawkes Process (MHP), whose impact…