Related papers: Compartmental Spatial Multi-Patch Deterministic an…
Epidemics of communicable diseases place a huge burden on public health infrastructures across the world. Producing accurate and actionable forecasts of infectious disease incidence at short and long time scales will improve public health…
The illness-death model of a chronic disease consists of the states 'Normal', 'Disease' and 'Death'. In general, the transition rates between the states depend on three time scales: calendar time, age and duration of the chronic disease.…
Causal discovery is a data-driven paradigm for analyzing complex systems, while physics-based models, such as ordinary differential equations (ODEs), provide mechanistic structure for real-world dynamical processes. Integrating these…
Dengue transmission is shaped by the population dynamics of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, making vector control a central strategy for disease mitigation. The impact of interventions such as larvicide, adulticide, and breeding-site reduction…
Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease common in tropical areas, is spread by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Temperature changes driven by climate affect vector ecology and expand regions of species coexistence. The combined effect of…
Here, we consider an SIS epidemic model where the individuals are distributed on several distinct patches. We construct a stochastic model and then prove that it converges to a deterministic model as the total population size tends to…
A new class of stochastic field models is constructed using nested stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). The model class is computationally efficient, applicable to data on general smooth manifolds, and includes both the…
According to the World Health Organization, dengue fever is the most important mosquito-borne disease of humans, and it is currently estimated that there may be 50 - 100 million yearly dengue infections worldwide. For the purpose to provide…
Discontinuities and delayed terms are encountered in the governing equations of a large class of problems ranging from physics and engineering to medicine and economics. These systems cannot be properly modelled and simulated with standard…
In this paper we propose a Stochastic model for studying a spatial cholera epidemic spreading where communities (Humans and Bacteria) are spatially distributed on a one-dimensional lattice and the bacteria are transported along a network…
We consider the problem of selecting deterministic or stochastic models for a biological, ecological, or environmental dynamical process. In most cases, one prefers either deterministic or stochastic models as candidate models based on…
We investigate neural ordinary and stochastic differential equations (neural ODEs and SDEs) to model stochastic dynamics in fully and partially observed environments within a model-based reinforcement learning (RL) framework. Through a…
This review maps developments in stochastic modeling, highlighting non-standard approaches and their applications to biology and epidemiology. It brings together four strands: (1) core models for systems that evolve with randomness; (2)…
The problems of selecting partial correlation and causality graphs for count data are considered. A parameter driven generalized linear model is used to describe the observed multivariate time series of counts. Partial correlation and…
It is preliminarily known that Aedes mosquitoes are very close to humans and their dwellings, also give rises to a broad spectrum of diseases: dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya. In this paper, we explore a multi-age-class model for mosquito…
A compartment epidemic model for infectious disease spreading is investigated, where movement of individuals is governed by spatial diffusion. The model includes infection age of the infected individuals and assumes a logistic growth of the…
Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are a ubiquitous modeling framework that finds applications in physics, biology, engineering, social science, and finance. Due to the availability of large-scale data sets, there is growing interest…
This paper aims to extend the Besag model, a widely used Bayesian spatial model in disease mapping, to a non-stationary spatial model for irregular lattice-type data. The goal is to improve the model's ability to capture complex spatial…
Background: A common modelling approach in public health and epidemiology divides the population under study into compartments containing persons that share the same status. Here we consider a three-state model with the compartments: A, B…
Systems whose time evolutions are entirely deterministic can nevertheless be studied probabilistically, i.e. in terms of the evolution of probability distributions rather than individual trajectories. This approach is central to the…