Related papers: Parameter Estimation of Heavy-Tailed AR Model with…
Autoregressive (AR) time series models are widely used in parametric spectral estimation (SE), where the power spectral density (PSD) of the time series is approximated by that of the \emph{best-fit} AR model, which is available in closed…
Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging due to the fact that the sampling rate may not be as fast as the timescale of the causal interactions. In this context, we can view our observed series as a subsampled version of…
The EM algorithm is a method for finding the maximum likelihood estimate of a model in the presence of missing data. Unfortunately, EM does not produce a parameter covariance matrix for standard errors. Supplemented EM (SEM; Meng & Rubin,…
Using a proper model to characterize a time series is crucial in making accurate predictions. In this work we use time-varying autoregressive process (TVAR) to describe non-stationary time series and model it as a mixture of multiple stable…
Autoregressive models are ubiquitous tools for the analysis of time series in many domains such as computational neuroscience and biomedical engineering. In these domains, data is, for example, collected from measurements of brain activity.…
In longitudinal data a response variable is measured over time, or under different conditions, for a cohort of individuals. In many situations all intended measurements are not available which results in missing values. If the missing value…
Autoregressive (AR) models remain widely used in time series analysis due to their interpretability, but convencional parameter estimation methods can be computationally expensive and prone to convergence issues. This paper proposes a…
High-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) models are important tools for the analysis of multivariate time series. This paper focuses on high-dimensional time series and on the different regularized estimation procedures proposed for…
We propose a multiscale approach to time series autoregression, in which linear regressors for the process in question include features of its own path that live on multiple timescales. We take these multiscale features to be the recent…
For time series data observed at non-random and possibly non-equidistant time points, we estimate the trend function nonparametrically. Under the assumption of a bounded total variation of the function and low-order moment conditions on the…
Shrinkage algorithms are of great importance in almost every area of statistics due to the increasing impact of big data. Especially time series analysis benefits from efficient and rapid estimation techniques such as the lasso. However,…
The paper examines the problem of representing the dynamics of low order autoregressive (AR) models with time varying (TV) coefficients. The existing literature computes the forecasts of the series from a recursion relation. Instead, we…
A new approach for feature extraction from time series is proposed in this paper. This approach consists of a specific regression model incorporating a discrete hidden logistic process. The model parameters are estimated by the maximum…
Forecasting time series data is an important subject in economics, business, and finance. Traditionally, there are several techniques to effectively forecast the next lag of time series data such as univariate Autoregressive (AR),…
This paper proposes a fast and accurate method for sparse regression in the presence of missing data. The underlying statistical model encapsulates the low-dimensional structure of the incomplete data matrix and the sparsity of the…
Modeling the time-varying covariance structures of high-dimensional variables is critical across diverse scientific and industrial applications; however, existing approaches exhibit notable limitations in either modeling flexibility or…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are popularly adopted for modelling high-dimensional time series, and their piecewise extensions allow for structural changes in the data. In VAR modelling, the number of parameters grow quadratically with…
Irregular multivariate time series with missing values present significant challenges for predictive modeling in domains such as healthcare. While deep learning approaches often focus on temporal interpolation or complex architectures to…
In this paper, we address the problem of modeling data with periodic autoregressive (PAR) time series and additive noise. In most cases, the data are processed assuming a noise-free model (i.e., without additive noise), which is not a…
We propose a Bayesian expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for reconstructing Markov-tree sparse signals via belief propagation. The measurements follow an underdetermined linear model where the regression-coefficient vector is the sum…