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We discuss the relative merits of optimistic and randomized approaches to exploration in reinforcement learning. Optimistic approaches presented in the literature apply an optimistic boost to the value estimate at each state-action pair and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-15 Ian Osband , Benjamin Van Roy

We study the modelling and valuation of surrender and other behavioural options in life insurance and pension. We place ourselves in between the two extremes of completely arbitrary intervention and optimal intervention by the policyholder.…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-12-08 Kamille Sofie Tågholt Gad , Jeppe Juhl , Mogens Steffensen

Computational models are powerful tools for understanding human cognition and behavior. They let us express our theories clearly and precisely, and offer predictions that can be subtle and often counter-intuitive. However, this same…

Bayesian inference has theoretical attractions as a principled framework for reasoning about beliefs. However, the motivations of Bayesian inference which claim it to be the only 'rational' kind of reasoning do not apply in practice. They…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-14 Sebastian Farquhar

As data-driven methods are deployed in real-world settings, the processes that generate the observed data will often react to the decisions of the learner. For example, a data source may have some incentive for the algorithm to provide a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-26 Roy Dong , Heling Zhang , Lillian J. Ratliff

Across many domains of interaction, both natural and artificial, individuals use past experience to shape future behaviors. The results of such learning processes depend on what individuals wish to maximize. A natural objective is one's own…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-09-02 Alex McAvoy , Julian Kates-Harbeck , Krishnendu Chatterjee , Christian Hilbe

Risk behavior can have substantial consequences for health, well-being, and functioning. Previous studies have shown an association between real-world risk behavior and risk behavior on experimental tasks, such as the Columbia Card Task,…

Applications · Statistics 2025-01-08 Nienke F. S. Dijkstra , Henning Tiemeier , Bernd C. Figner , Patrick J. F. Groenen

Recent work on algorithmic fairness has largely focused on the fairness of discrete decisions, or classifications. While such decisions are often based on risk score models, the fairness of the risk models themselves has received…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-24 Eike Petersen , Melanie Ganz , Sune Hannibal Holm , Aasa Feragen

In experimental applications of bounded-reasoning models, behavior is often summarized by distributions of "levels". We argue that such summaries conflate two conceptually distinct dimensions: a player's type, capturing beliefs about what…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-04-15 Shuige Liu , Gabriel Ziegler

Estimation frameworks for statistical inference are preferred to hypothesis testing when quantifying uncertainty and precise estimation are more valuable than binary decisions about statistical significance. Study design for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-29 Luke Hagar , Nathaniel T. Stevens

Typically, a randomized experiment is designed to test a hypothesis about the average treatment effect and sometimes hypotheses about treatment effect variation. The results of such a study may then be used to inform policy and practice for…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-01 Elizabeth Tipton , Michalis Mamakos

We study a model of moral hazard with heterogeneous beliefs where each of agent's actions gives rise to a pair of probability distributions over output levels, one representing the beliefs of the agent and the other those of the principal.…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-10-12 Martin Dumav , Urmee Khan , Luca Rigotti

When an individual's behavior has rational characteristics, this may lead to irrational collective actions for the group. A wide range of organisms from animals to humans often evolve the social attribute of cooperation to meet this…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2021-11-18 Zhenbo Cheng , Xingguang Liu , Leilei Zhang , Hangcheng Meng , Qin Li , Xiao Gang

All people have to make risky decisions in everyday life. And we do not know how true they are. But is it possible to mathematically assess the correctness of our choice? This article discusses the model of decision making under risk on the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-01-08 O. A. Malafeyev , A. N. Malova , A. E. Tsybaeva

This paper discusses an alternative explanation for the empirical findings contradicting the positive relationship between risk (variance) and reward (expected return). We show that these contradicting results might be due to the false…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-04-19 Mihaly Ormos , Dusan Timotity

To choose between two discrete goods, a consumer pays attention to only those with prices below a threshold. From these, she chooses her most preferred good. We assume consumers in a population have the same preference but may have…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-11-07 Kaushil Patel

Many applications in Reinforcement Learning (RL) usually have noise or stochasticity present in the environment. Beyond their impact on learning, these uncertainties lead the exact same policy to perform differently, i.e. yield different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-23 Manon Flageat , Bryan Lim , Antoine Cully

Learning policies via preference-based reward learning is an increasingly popular method for customizing agent behavior, but has been shown anecdotally to be prone to spurious correlations and reward hacking behaviors. While much prior work…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Jeremy Tien , Jerry Zhi-Yang He , Zackory Erickson , Anca D. Dragan , Daniel S. Brown

This paper studies choice situations in which a decision maker can choose multiple alternatives. Given a menu of available options, the decision maker selects a subset of the menu with certain probabilities. We employ an axiomatic approach…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-11-25 Tri Phu Vu

Decisions taken in our everyday lives are based on a wide variety of information so it is generally very difficult to assess what are the strategies that guide us. Stock market therefore provides a rich environment to study how people take…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-09-28 Mario Gutiérrez-Roig , Carlota Segura , Jordi Duch , Josep Perelló