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In this work, a fully nonparametric geostatistical approach to estimate threshold exceeding probabilities is proposed. To estimate the large-scale variability (spatial trend) of the process, the nonparametric local linear regression…

In many environmental applications involving spatially-referenced data, limitations on the number and locations of observations motivate the need for practical and efficient models for spatial interpolation, or kriging. A key component of…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-15 Mark D. Risser , Catherine A. Calder

This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates of both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this problem does not have a tractable solution and approximations must be utilised. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-15 Jarrad Courts , Johannes Hendriks , Adrian Wills , Thomas Schön , Brett Ninness

This paper studies sparse covariance operator estimation for nonstationary processes with sharply varying marginal variance and small correlation lengthscale. We introduce a covariance operator estimator that adaptively thresholds the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-23 Omar Al-Ghattas , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

We study how sampling geometry contributes to uncertainty in modeling spatial geophysical observations as sampled random fields characterized by stationary, isotropic, parametric covariance functions. We incorporate the signature of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Olivia L. Walbert , Frederik J. Simons , Arthur P. Guillaumin , Sofia C. Olhede

Standard geostatistical models assume stationarity and rely on a variogram model to account for the spatial dependence in the observed data. In some instances, this assumption that the spatial dependence structure is constant throughout the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-16 Dave Higdon , Jenise Swall , John Kern

A wide body of work has applied the concept of critical slowing down to estimate the stability of different Earth system components. Most of them -- such as global vegetation -- are inherently non-stationary, for example due to strong…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-28 Taylor Smith , Andreas Morr , Christof Schötz , Niklas Boers

In spite of the interest in and appeal of convolution-based approaches for nonstationary spatial modeling, off-the-shelf software for model fitting does not as of yet exist. Convolution-based models are highly flexible yet notoriously…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-07 Mark D. Risser , Catherine A. Calder

We propose a model selection approach for covariance estimation of a multi-dimensional stochastic process. Under very general assumptions, observing i.i.d replications of the process at fixed observation points, we construct an estimator of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Jérémie Bigot , Rolando Biscay , Jean-Michel Loubes , Lilian Muniz Alvarez

Stochastic spectral methods have achieved great success in the uncertainty quantification of many engineering problems, including electronic and photonic integrated circuits influenced by fabrication process variations. Existing techniques…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-12-06 Chunfeng Cui , Zheng Zhang

An algorithm for non-stationary spatial modelling using multiple secondary variables is developed. It combines Geostatistics with Quantile Random Forests to give a new interpolation and stochastic simulation algorithm. This paper introduces…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-13 Colin Daly

A new class of stochastic field models is constructed using nested stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). The model class is computationally efficient, applicable to data on general smooth manifolds, and includes both the…

Applications · Statistics 2011-04-19 David Bolin , Finn Lindgren

The need to estimate a particular quantile of a distribution is an important problem which frequently arises in many computer vision and signal processing applications. For example, our work was motivated by the requirements of many…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2015-04-22 Ognjen Arandjelovic , Duc-Son Pham , Svetha Venkatesh

Stationary Random Functions have been successfully applied in geostatistical applications for decades. In some instances, the assumption of a homogeneous spatial dependence structure across the entire domain of interest is unrealistic. A…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-04 Francky Fouedjio , Nicolas Desassis , Thomas Romary

In many environmental applications involving spatially-referenced data, limitations on the number and locations of observations motivate the need for practical and efficient models for spatial interpolation, or kriging. A key component of…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-11 Mark D. Risser

This paper considers parameter estimation for nonlinear state-space models, which is an important but challenging problem. We address this challenge by employing a variational inference (VI) approach, which is a principled method that has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-15 Jarrad Courts , Adrian Wills , Thomas Schön , Brett Ninness

A stationary spatial model is an idealization and we expect that the true dependence structures of physical phenomena are spatially varying, but how should we handle this non-stationarity in practice? We study the challenges involved in…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-15 Geir-Arne Fuglstad , Daniel Simpson , Finn Lindgren , Håvard Rue

Stochastic Approximation (SA) is a classical algorithm that has had since the early days a huge impact on signal processing, and nowadays on machine learning, due to the necessity to deal with a large amount of data observed with…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-07-18 Aymeric Dieuleveut , Gersende Fort , Eric Moulines , Hoi-To Wai

We propose to approximate the conditional expectation of a spatial random variable given its nearest-neighbour observations by an additive function. The setting is meaningful in practice and requires no unilateral ordering. It is capable of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-28 Zudi Lu , Arvid Lundervold , Dag Tjøstheim , Qiwei Yao

We consider a measurable stationary Gaussian stochastic process. A criterion for testing hypotheses about the covariance function of such a process using estimates for its norm in the space $L_p(\mathbb {T}),\,p\geq1$, is constructed.

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Yuriy Kozachenko , Viktor Troshki