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In this paper, we derive a parabolic partial differential equation for the expected exit time of non-autonomous time-periodic non-degenerate stochastic differential equations. This establishes a Feynman-Kac duality between expected exit…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-12 Chunrong Feng , Huaizhong Zhao , Johnny Zhong

We present an approximate analytical expression for the escape rate of time-dependent driven stochastic processes with an absorbing boundary such as the driven leaky integrate-and-fire model for neural spiking. The novel approximation is…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Michael Schindler , Peter Talkner , Peter Hänggi

In this paper, we focus on multiple sampling problems for the estimation of the fractional Brownian motion when the maximum number of samples is limited, extending existing results in the literature in a non-Markovian framework. Two classes…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-18 Xiang Cui , Alexandra Chronopoulou

The purpose of the article is twofold. Firstly, we review some recent results on the maximum likelihood estimation in the regression model of the form $X_t = \theta G(t) + B_t$, where $B$ is a Gaussian process, $G(t)$ is a known function,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-27 Yuliya Mishura , Kostiantyn Ralchenko , Sergiy Shklyar

We present here a simple method for computing the large deviation of long time average for stochastic jump processes. We show that the computation of the rate function can be reduced to that of a partial differential equation governing the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-04-22 Bahram Houchmandzadeh

For a spectrally positive strictly stable process with index in (1,2), the paper obtains i) the density of the time when the process makes first exit from an interval by hitting the interval's lower end point before jumping over its upper…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-21 Zhiyi Chi

Complex systems are sometimes subject to non Gaussian alpha stable Levy fluctuations. A new method is devised to estimate this uncertain parameter and other system parameters, using observations on either mean exit time or escape…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2013-06-04 Ting Gao , Jinqiao Duan

Recently a general growth curve including the well known growth equations, such as Malthus, logistic, Bertallanfy, Gompertz, has been studied. We now propose two stochastic formulations of this growth equation. They are obtained starting…

We derive the first-passage-time statistics of a Brownian motion driven by an exponential time-dependent drift up to a threshold. This process corresponds to the signal integration in a simple neuronal model supplemented with an…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-04-30 Eugenio Urdapilleta

By appealing to renewal theory we determine the equations that the mean exit time of a continuous-time random walk with drift satisfies both when the present coincides with a jump instant or when it does not. Particular attention is paid to…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-08-31 Miquel Montero , Javier Villarroel

The mean first exit time and escape probability are utilized to quantify dynamical behaviors of stochastic differential equations with non-Gaussian alpha-stable type Levy motions. Both deterministic quantities are characterized by…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2012-01-31 Ting Gao , Jinqiao Duan , Xiaofan Li , Renming Song

We consider the exit problem for a one-dimensional system with random switching near an unstable equilibrium point of the averaged drift. In the infinite switching rate limit, we show that the exit time satisfies a limit theorem with a…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-11-12 Yuri Bakhtin , Alexisz Gaál

In this brief note we give an upper bound for $P(\tau_u < T)$ with $T>0$, where $\tau_u$ is the exit time defined as $\tau_u:=\inf \{ t\geq 0 \, : \, X_t\geq u \}$ and $(X_t)_{t\geq 0}$ is the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes which…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-16 Wilson Cabanillas B

Time estimation is a fundamental task that underpins precision measurement, global navigation systems, financial markets, and the organisation of everyday life. Many biological processes also depend on time estimation by nanoscale clocks,…

Variational formulas for the Laplace transform of the exit time from an open set of a Hunt process generated by a regular lower bounded semi-Dirichlet form are established. While for symmetric Markov processes, variational formulas are…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-29 Lu-Jing Huang , Kyung-Youn Kim , Yong-Hua Mao , Tao Wang

The purpose of this paper is to consider the exit-time problem for a finite-range Markov jump process, i.e, the distance the particle can jump is bounded independent of its location. Such jump diffusions are expedient models for anomalous…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-29 Nathanial Burch , Marta D'Elia , R. B. Lehoucq

We supplement a very recent paper of G. Markowsky concerned with the expected exit times of Brownian motion from planar domains. Besides the use of conformal mapping, we apply results from potential theory. We treat the case of a…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2012-03-26 Mark W. Coffey

The {\alpha}-stable L\'evy process, commonly used to describe L\'evy flight, is characterized by discontinuous jumps and is widely used to model anomalous transport phenomena. In this study, we investigate the associated exit problem and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-01-16 Minglei Yang , Diego del-Castillo-Negrete , Guannan Zhang

We analyse large deviations of time-averaged quantities in stochastic processes with long-range memory, where the dynamics at time t depends itself on the value q_t of the time-averaged quantity. First we consider the elephant random walk…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-08-05 Robert L. Jack , Rosemary J. Harris

It is well known that the dynamics of a subpopulation of individuals of a rare type in a Wright-Fisher diffusion can be approximated by a Feller branching process. Here we establish an analogue of that result for a spatially distributed…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-30 Jonathan A. Chetwynd-Diggle , Alison M. Etheridge