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In a changing climate, a key role may be played by the response of convective-type cloud and precipitation to temperature changes. Yet, it is unclear if precipitation intensities will increase mainly due to modified thermodynamic forcing or…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-10-12 Christopher Moseley , Cathy Hohenegger , Peter Berg , Jan O. Haerter

Although most models for rainfall extremes focus on point-wise values, it is aggregated precipitation over areas up to river catchment scale that is of the most interest. To capture the joint behaviour of precipitation aggregates evaluated…

Applications · Statistics 2023-01-03 Jordan Richards , Jonathan A. Tawn , Simon Brown

Convective self-aggregation is a modelling paradigm for thunderstorm organisation over a constant-temperature tropical sea surface. This setup can give rise to cloud clusters over timescales of weeks. In reality, sea surface temperatures do…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-12-04 Jan O. Haerter , Bettina Meyer , Silas Boye Nissen

Dynamical downscaling with high-resolution regional climate models may offer the possibility of realistically reproducing precipitation and weather events in climate simulations. As resolutions fall to order kilometers, the use of explicit…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-01 Won Chang , Jiali Wang , Julian Marohnic , Rao Kotamarthi , Elisabeth J. Moyer

Convective self-aggregation is when thunderstorm clouds cluster over a constant temperature surface in radiative convective equilibrium. Self-aggregation was implicated in the Madden-Julian Oscillation and hurricanes. Yet, numerical…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2020-02-11 Jan O. Haerter

Idealized convection-permitting simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) have become a popular tool for understanding the physical processes leading to horizontal variability of tropical water vapor and rainfall. However, the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-09-19 Tom Beucler , Tristan Abbott , Timothy Cronin , Michael Pritchard

Precipitation extremes produced by convection have been found to intensify with near-surface temperatures at a Clausius-Clapeyron rate of $6$ to $7\%$ K$^{-1}$ in simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). However, these…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-24 Robert J. van der Drift , Paul A. O'Gorman

Self-aggregation of tropical convection is a universal feature observed in a diverse range of atmospheric environments. Several preceding models conceptualized the self-aggregation of convection as a phase transition driven by collisions…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-23 Takuya Jinno , Hiroaki Miura

It is increasingly acknowledged that cold pools can influence the initiation of new convective cells. Yet, the full complexity of convective organization through cold pool interaction is poorly understood. This lack of understanding may…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-02-11 Marielle B. Fournier , Jan O. Haerter

In radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) simulations, convective self-aggregation (CSA) is the spontaneous organization into segregated cloudy and cloud-free regions. Evidence exists for how CSA is stabilized, but how it arises favorably…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-10-14 Silas Boye Nissen , Jan O. Haerter

Context: The paradigm of convection in solar-like stars is questioned based on recent solar observations. Aims: The primary aim is to study the effects of surface-driven entropy rain on convection zone structure and flows. Methods:…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2025-06-11 P. J. Käpylä

Tropical precipitation extremes are expected to strengthen with warming, but quantitative estimates remain uncertain because of a poor understanding of changes in convective dynamics. This uncertainty is addressed here by analyzing…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-04-22 Tristan H. Abbott , Timothy W. Cronin , Tom Beucler

The study of complex systems in nature is essential to understand the interactions between different elements and how they influence one another. Complex network theory is a powerful tool that helps us to analyze these interactions and gain…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Aurelienne A. S. Jorge , Douglas Uba , Alex A. Fernandes , Izabelly C. Costa , Leonardo B. L. Santos

Precipitation/dissolution reactions coupled with solute transport are modelled as a cellular automaton in which solute molecules perform a random walk on a regular lattice and react according to a local probabilistic rule. Stationary solid…

comp-gas · Physics 2009-10-28 T. Karapiperis

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are crucial components of the hydrological cycle and often produce flash floods. Given their impact, it is crucial to understand how they will change under a warming climate. This study uses a satellite-…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-06-18 Wenjun Cui , Thomas Galarneau , Kimberly Hoogewind

Inference on the extremal behaviour of spatial aggregates of precipitation is important for quantifying river flood risk. There are two classes of previous approach, with one failing to ensure self-consistency in inference across different…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 Jordan Richards , Jonathan A. Tawn , Simon Brown

Cloud processes are the largest source of uncertainty in quantifying the global temperature response to carbon dioxide rise. Still, the role of precipitation efficiency (PE) -- surface rain per unit column -- integrated condensation -- is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-02-22 Ryan Li , Joshua Studholme , Alexey Fedorov , Trude Storelvmo

Accurately representing surface precipitation is crucial for the operational use of weather and climate models. Presently, global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models struggle to accurately generate precipitation due to their…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-30 Raul Moreno , Dale Durran

To elucidate how land surface state and soil moisture dynamics regulate moist convection, and how convective rainfall subsequently reshapes surface and root-zone hydrology, we develop a stochastic dynamical model that couples soil moisture,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-10 Elizabeth Cultra , Jun Yin , Mark Bartlett , Amilcare Porporato

Mixing of two fluids can lead to the formation of a precipitate. If one of the fluids is injected into a confined space filled with the other, a created precipitate disrupts the flow locally and forms complex spatiotemporal patterns. The…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2023-12-12 Shunsuke Tanaka , Kojiro Otoguro , Miyuki Kunihiro , Hiroki Ishikawa , Yutaka Sumino
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