Related papers: Smile Modelling in Commodity Markets
Accurately forecasting the price of oil, the world's most actively traded commodity, is of great importance to both academics and practitioners. We contribute by proposing a functional time series based method to model and forecast oil…
We design three continuous--time models in finite horizon of a commodity price, whose dynamics can be affected by the actions of a representative risk--neutral producer and a representative risk--neutral trader. Depending on the model, the…
We propose a new framework for modeling stochastic local volatility, with potential applications to modeling derivatives on interest rates, commodities, credit, equity, FX etc., as well as hybrid derivatives. Our model extends the…
In the Black-Scholes context we consider the probability distribution function (PDF) of financial returns implied by volatility smile and we study the relation between the decay of its tails and the fitting parameters of the smile. We show…
We introduce a Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method, which provides prediction of future paths, given any generative model. At any given date, it averages future quantities over generated price paths whose past history matches, or `shadows',…
Fitting simultaneously SPX and VIX smiles is known to be one of the most challenging problems in volatility modeling. A long-standing conjecture due to Julien Guyon is that it may not be possible to calibrate jointly these two quantities…
Based on empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model is proposed with volatility driven by fractional noise. The model is used to obtain a risk-neutrality option pricing formula and an option pricing equation.
The left tail of the implied volatility skew, coming from quotes on out-of-the-money put options, can be thought to reflect the market's assessment of the risk of a huge drop in stock prices. We analyze how this market information can be…
We consider stochastic volatility models under parameter uncertainty and investigate how model derived prices of European options are affected. We let the pricing parameters evolve dynamically in time within a specified region, and…
We provide a full characterisation of the large-maturity forward implied volatility smile in the Heston model. Although the leading decay is provided by a fairly classical large deviations behaviour, the algebraic expansion providing the…
We consider a market model that consists of financial investors and producers of a commodity. Producers optionally store some production for future sale and go short on forward contracts to hedge the uncertainty of the future commodity…
Financial markets for Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) are an important and rapidly-growing segment of commodities markets. Like other commodities markets, there is an inherent spatial structure to LNG markets, with different price dynamics for…
We provide explicit small-time formulae for the at-the-money implied volatility, skew and curvature in a large class of models, including rough volatility models and their multi-factor versions. Our general setup encompasses both European…
Given the promising results on joint modeling of SPX/VIX smiles of the recently introduced quadratic rough Heston model, we consider a multi-asset market making problem on SPX and its derivatives, e.g. VIX futures, SPX and VIX options. The…
We propose a state-space model (SSM) for commodity prices that combines the competitive storage model with a stochastic trend. This approach fits into the economic rationality of storage decisions, and adds to previous deterministic trend…
We present several models to describe the stochastic evolution of stocks that show some strong resistance at some level and generalize to this situation the evolution based upon geometric Brownian motion. If volatility and drift are related…
In this paper, we propose and study a novel continuous-time model, based on the well-known constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model, to describe the asset price process. The basic idea is that the volatility elasticity of the CEV model…
In commodity markets the convergence of futures towards spot prices, at the expiration of the contract, is usually justified by no-arbitrage arguments. In this article, we propose an alternative approach that relies on the expected profit…
We provide explicit approximation formulas for VIX futures and options in forward variance models, with particular emphasis on the family of so-called Bergomi models: the one-factor Bergomi model [Bergomi, Smile dynamics II, Risk, 2005],…
Volatility smile and skewness are two key properties of option prices that are represented by the implied volatility (IV) surface. However, IV surface calibration through nonlinear interpolation is a complex problem due to several factors,…