Related papers: Smile Modelling in Commodity Markets
Consistently fitting vanilla option surfaces is an important issue when it comes to modelling in finance. Local volatility models introduced by Dupire in 1994 are widely used to price and manage the risks of structured products. However,…
We analyse the behaviour of the implied volatility smile for options close to expiry in the exponential L\'evy class of asset price models with jumps. We introduce a new renormalisation of the strike variable with the property that the…
This paper investigates how the conditional quantiles of future returns and volatility of financial assets vary with various measures of ex-post variation in asset prices as well as option-implied volatility. We work in the flexible…
In this paper we show how to approximate a Heath-Jarrow-Morton dynamics for the forward prices in commodity markets with arbitrage-free models which have a finite dimensional state space. Moreover, we recover a closed form representation of…
We present small-time implied volatility asymptotics for Realised Variance (RV) and VIX options for a number of (rough) stochastic volatility models via large deviations principle. We provide numerical results along with efficient and…
We propose an affine extension of the Linear Gaussian term structure Model (LGM) such that the instantaneous covariation of the factors is given by an affine process on semidefinite positive matrices. First, we set up the model and present…
This paper investigates how realized and option implied volatilities are related to the future quantiles of commodity returns. Whereas realized volatility measures ex-post uncertainty, volatility implied by option prices reveals the…
The implied volatility smile surface is the basis of option pricing, and the dynamic evolution of the option volatility smile surface is difficult to predict. In this paper, attention mechanism is introduced into LSTM, and a volatility…
Real life hedging in the Black-Scholes model must be imperfect and if the stock's drift is higher than the risk free rate, leads to a profit on average. Hence the option price is examined as a fair game agreement between the parties, based…
The rBergomi model under the physical measure consists of modeling the log-variance as a truncated Brownian semi-stationary process. Then, a deterministic change of measure is applied. The rBergomi model is able to reproduce observed market…
In the present paper, given an evolving mixture of probability densities, we define a candidate diffusion process whose marginal law follows the same evolution. We derive as a particular case a stochastic differential equation (SDE)…
We study a stochastic control approach to managed futures portfolios. Building on the Schwartz 97 stochastic convenience yield model for commodity prices, we formulate a utility maximization problem for dynamically trading a single-maturity…
We study the local volatility function in the Foreign Exchange market where both domestic and foreign interest rates are stochastic. This model is suitable to price long-dated FX derivatives. We derive the local volatility function and…
We revisit the problem of pricing options with historical volatility estimators. We do this in the context of a generalized GARCH model with multiple time scales and asymmetry. It is argued that the reason for the observed volatility risk…
In equity and foreign exchange markets the risk-neutral dynamics of the underlying asset are commonly represented by stochastic volatility models with jumps. In this paper we consider a dense subclass of such models and develop analytically…
Volatility Skew and Smile of Interest Rate products (Swaption and Caplet) are represented by SABR (Stochastic Alpha Beta Rho model). So, the Interest Rate derivatives model for pricing the callable exotic swaps should be comparable to the…
We suggest an intermediate currency approach that allows us to price options on all FX markets simultaneously under the same risk-neutral measure which ensures consistency of FX option prices across all markets. In particular, it is…
We introduce a multi-factor stochastic volatility model for commodities that incorporates seasonality and the Samuelson effect. Conditions on the seasonal term under which the corresponding volatility factor is well-defined are given, and…
We study the effect of parameter uncertainty on a stochastic diffusion model, in particular the impact on the pricing of contingent claims, using methods from the theory of Dirichlet forms. We apply these techniques to hedging procedures in…
It is a market practice to express market-implied volatilities in some parametric form. The most popular parametrizations are based on or inspired by an underlying stochastic model, like the Heston model (SVI method) or the SABR model (SABR…