Related papers: Analytic Moments for GARCH Processes
Time series modeling is crucial for many applications, however, it faces challenges such as complex spatio-temporal dependencies and distribution shifts in learning from historical context to predict task-specific outcomes. To address these…
We introduce a generalisation of the well-known ARCH process, widely used for generating uncorrelated stochastic time series with long-term non-Gaussian distributions and long-lasting correlations in the (instantaneous) standard deviation…
A standard model of (conditional) heteroscedasticity, i.e., the phenomenon that the variance of a process changes over time, is the Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, which is especially important for…
Count time series data are frequently analyzed by modeling their conditional means and the conditional variance is often considered to be a deterministic function of the corresponding conditional mean and is not typically modeled…
AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models are standard for modeling time series exhibiting volatility, with a rich literature in univariate and multivariate settings. In recent years, these models have been extended to…
The discrete-time GARCH methodology which has had such a profound influence on the modelling of heteroscedasticity in time series is intuitively well motivated in capturing many `stylized facts' concerning financial series, and is now…
In this note, we consider the performance of the classic method of moments for parameter estimation of symmetric variance-gamma (generalized Laplace) distributions. We do this through both theoretical analysis (multivariate delta method)…
This paper presents a novel estimator of orthogonal GARCH models, which combines (eigenvalue and -vector) targeting estimation with stepwise (univariate) estimation. We denote this the spectral targeting estimator. This two-step estimator…
Generalized moment problems optimize functional expectation over a class of distributions with generalized moment constraints, i.e., the function in the moment can be any measurable function. These problems have recently attracted growing…
Beginning with work of Zeilberger on classical pattern counts, there are a variety of structural results for moments of permutation statistics applied to random permutations. Using tools from representation theory, Gaetz and Ryba…
We develop a generalized method of moments (GMM) approach for fast parameter estimation in a new class of Dirichlet latent variable models with mixed data types. Parameter estimation via GMM has been demonstrated to have computational and…
These lecture notes introduce the statistical analysis of continuous-time generative models built from Markov dynamics. We begin with the stochastic-calculus foundations of score-based diffusion models, including time reversal, score…
Let $(X_n)_{n\in \mathbb Z}$ be a GARCH process with $E(X_0^4)<\infty$, and let $\mu_n$ denote the distribution of $\frac 1{{\sqrt n}}\sum_{i=1}^n [X_i^2-\mathbb E(X_0^2)]$. We derive a numerical approximation of $\mu_n$ when $x_1,...,x_n$…
Generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) processes are widely used for modelling features commonly found in observed financial returns. The extremal properties of these processes are of considerable interest for…
Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has seen many empirical successes in recent years by aiding the LLM with external knowledge. However, its theoretical aspect has remained mostly unexplored. In this paper, we propose the first…
We consider a class of M-estimators of the parameters of a GARCH (p,q) model. These estimators involve score functions and, for adequate choices of the score functions, are asymptotically normal under milder moment assumptions than the…
We establish a formula for moments of certain random variables involving positive continuous additive functionals (PCAFs) of standard processes which have absolutely continuous transition functions and are in duality with standard processes…
We investigate the properties of a continuous time GARCH process as the solution to a L\'evy driven stochastic functional integral equation. This process occurs as a weak limit of a sequence of discrete time GARCH processes as the time…
The main goal of this paper is an application of Bayesian model comparison, based on the posterior probabilities and posterior odds ratios, in testing the explanatory power of the set of competing GARCH (ang. Generalised Autoregressive…
In this paper, we analyze the time-series of minute price returns on the Bitcoin market through the statistical models of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family. Several mathematical models have been…