Related papers: An exactly solvable record model for rainfall
This study presents a novel generative modeling approach to rainfall-runoff modeling, focusing on the synthesis of realistic daily catchment runoff time series in response to catchment-averaged climate forcing. Unlike traditional…
Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in…
We study how the Shannon entropy of sequences produced by an information source converges to the source's entropy rate. We synthesize several phenomenological approaches to applying information theoretic measures of randomness and memory to…
Let $X_1,X_2,...,X_n$ be a sequence of independent or locally dependent random variables taking values in $\mathbb{Z}_+$. In this paper, we derive sharp bounds, via a new probabilistic method, for the total variation distance between the…
Correctly forecasting the timing and location of changes in winter precipitation type could help decision makers mitigate the worst impacts of winter storms. Multiple precipitation type algorithms have been developed from both physical and…
In many contexts such as queuing theory, spatial statistics, geostatistics and meteorology, data are observed at irregular spatial positions. One model of this situation involves considering the observation points as generated by a Poisson…
In this work, Bernoulli's Law of Large Numbers, also known as the Golden theorem, has been extended to study the relations between empirical probability and empirical randomness of an otherwise random experiment. Using the example of a coin…
Extreme value theory is concerned with probabilistic and statistical questions related to very high or very low values in sequences of random variables and in stochastic processes. The subject has a rich mathematical theory and also a long…
This paper explores a large collection of about 377,000 observations, spanning more than 20 years with a frequency of 30 minutes, of the streamflow of the Paglia river, in central Italy. We analyze the long-term persistence properties of…
The perceived randomness in the time evolution of "chaotic" dynamical systems can be characterized by universal probabilistic limit laws, which do not depend on the fine features of the individual system. One important example is the…
We analyze distributions of rain-event sizes, rain-event durations, and dry-spell durations for data obtained from a network of 20 rain gauges scattered in a region of the NW Mediterranean coast. While power-law distributions model the…
For a sequence of i.i.d. $d$-dimensional random vectors with independent continuously distributed coordinates, say that the $n$th observation in the sequence sets a record if it is not dominated in every coordinate by an earlier…
Statistical modeling of monthly, seasonal, or annual rainfall data is an important research area in meteorology. These models play a crucial role in rainfed agriculture, where a proper assessment of the future availability of rainwater is…
Simulating realistic wet and dry spells is central in weather generators and climate-impact studies. While finite-order Markov chains are standard, they often fail to reproduce persistent dry conditions due to their inherent subexponential…
We present a stochastic mean-reverting jump-diffusion model to simulate rainfall time series and validate it using long-term half-hourly rain fall data from the North-East region of India. The model captures the intermittent and…
There are numerous examples of natural and artificial processes that represent stochastic sequences of events followed by an absolute refractory period during which the occurrence of a subsequent event is impossible. In the simplest case of…
We compare rain event size distributions derived from measurements in climatically different regions, which we find to be well approximated by power laws of similar exponents over broad ranges. Differences can be seen in the large-scale…
Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…
This paper investigates the probability density function ($pdf$) of the $(2n-1)$-vector $(n\geq 1)$ of both lower and upper record values for a sequence of independent random variables with common $pdf f$ defined on the same probability…
We review basic modeling approaches for failure and maintenance data from repairable systems. In particular we consider imperfect repair models, defined in terms of virtual age processes, and the trend-renewal process which extends the…