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Using the renewal approach we prove exponential inequalities for additive functionals and empirical processes of ergodic Markov chains, thus obtaining counterparts of inequalities for sums of independent random variables. The inequalities…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-18 Radosław Adamczak , Witold Bednorz

We establish a new Bernstein-type deviation inequality for general (non-reversible) discrete-time Markov chains via an elementary approach. More robust than existing works in the literature, our result only requires the Markov chain to…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-07 De Huang , Xiangyuan Li

In this paper, we establish moment and Bernstein-type inequalities for additive functionals of geometrically ergodic Markov chains. These inequalities extend the corresponding inequalities for independent random variables. Our conditions…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-16 Alain Durmus , Eric Moulines , Alexey Naumov , Sergey Samsonov

In this paper we survey some recent results on the central limit theorem and its weak invariance principle for stationary sequences. We also describe several maximal inequalities that are the main tool for obtaining the invariance…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Florence Merlevède , Magda Peligrad , Sergey Utev

Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-26 Lasse Leskelä , Maximilien Dreveton

Imprecise continuous-time Markov chains are a robust type of continuous-time Markov chains that allow for partially specified time-dependent parameters. Computing inferences for them requires the solution of a non-linear differential…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-11 Alexander Erreygers , Jasper De Bock

In this article we present a Bernstein inequality for sums of random variables which are defined on a graphical network whose nodes grow at an exponential rate. The inequality can be used to derive concentration inequalities in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-09-20 Johannes T. N. Krebs

Learning from non-independent and non-identically distributed data poses a persistent challenge in statistical learning. In this study, we introduce data-dependent Bernstein inequalities tailored for vector-valued processes in Hilbert…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Erfan Mirzaei , Andreas Maurer , Vladimir R. Kostic , Massimiliano Pontil

Using the renewal approach we prove Bernstein-like inequalities for additive functionals of geometrically ergodic Markov chains, thus obtaining counterparts of inequalities for sums of independent random variables. The coefficient in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-18 Michał Lemańczyk

Mostof the existing literature on supervised machine learning problems focuses on the case when the training data set is drawn from an i.i.d. sample. However, many practical problems are characterized by temporal dependence and strong…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-23 Nikola Sandrić , Stjepan Šebek

We establish Bernstein's inequalities for functions of general (general-state-space and possibly non-reversible) Markov chains. These inequalities achieve sharp variance proxies and encompass the classical Bernstein inequality for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-18 Bai Jiang , Qiang Sun , Jianqing Fan

In this paper we obtain non-uniform exponential upper bounds for the rate of convergence of a version of the algorithm Context, when the underlying tree is not necessarily bounded. The algorithm Context is a well-known tool to estimate the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-05-22 Antonio Galves , Florencia Leonardi

We consider the stochastic integrals of multivariate point processes and study their concentration phenomena. In particular, we obtain a Bernstein type of concentration inequality through Dol\'eans-Dade exponential formula and a uniform…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-24 Hanchao Wang , Zhengyan Lin , Zhonggen Su

This paper investigates the supervised learning problem with observations drawn from certain general stationary stochastic processes. Here by \emph{general}, we mean that many stationary stochastic processes can be included. We show that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-11 Hanyuan Hang , Yunlong Feng , Ingo Steinwart , Johan A. K. Suykens

There is a well-established theory linking certain semi-Markov chains and continuous-time random walks to time-fractional equations and anomalous diffusion. In this work, we go beyond the semi-Markov framework by considering some…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-27 Lorenzo Facciaroni , Costantino Ricciuti , Enrico Scalas

The first motivation of this paper is to study stationarity and ergodic properties for a general class of time series models defined conditional on an exogenous covariates process. The dynamic of these models is given by an autoregressive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-16 Paul Doukhan , Michael H. Neumann , Lionel Truquet

Markov chains are a natural and well understood tool for describing one-dimensional patterns in time or space. We show how to infer $k$-th order Markov chains, for arbitrary $k$, from finite data by applying Bayesian methods to both…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-13 Christopher C. Strelioff , James P. Crutchfield , Alfred W. Hubler

We obtain non-uniform Edgeworth expansions for several classes of weakly dependent (non-stationary) sequences of random variables, including uniformly elliptic inhomogeneous Markov chains, random and time-varying (partially) hyperbolic or…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-11 Yeor Hafouta

The paper is devoted to the estimation of the rate of of exponential convergence of nonhomogeneous queues exhibiting different types of ergodicity. The main tool of our study is the method, which was proposed by the second author in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Boris L. Granovsky , Aleksandr I. Zeifman

We study dynamical reversibility in stationary stochastic processes from an information theoretic perspective. Extending earlier work on the reversibility of Markov chains, we focus on finitary processes with arbitrarily long conditional…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-28 Christopher J. Ellison , John R. Mahoney , Ryan G. James , James P. Crutchfield , Joerg Reichardt
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