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The data processing inequality is central to information theory and motivates the study of monotonic divergences. However, it is not clear operationally we need to consider all such divergences. We establish a simple method for Pinsker…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-04-02 Ian George , Alice Zheng , Akshay Bansal

Temporal difference (TD) learning is a fundamental algorithm for estimating value functions in reinforcement learning. Recent finite-time analyses of TD with linear function approximation quantify its theoretical convergence rate. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-04 Yunxiang Li , Mark Schmidt , Reza Babanezhad , Sharan Vaswani

Consider longitudinal networks whose edges turn on and off according to a discrete-time Markov chain with exponential-family transition probabilities. We characterize when their joint distributions are also exponential families with the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-12 William K. Schwartz , Sonja Petrović , Hemanshu Kaul

We propose a new model for nonstationary integer-valued time series which is particularly suitable for data with a strong trend. In contrast to popular Poisson-INGARCH models, but in line with classical GARCH models, we propose to pick the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-28 Anne Leucht , Michael H. Neumann

We prove a version of McDiarmid's bounded differences inequality for Markov chains, with constants proportional to the mixing time of the chain. We also show variance bounds and Bernstein-type inequalities for empirical averages of Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-14 Daniel Paulin

We consider parameter inference for linear quantile regression with non-stationary predictors and errors, where the regression parameters are subject to inequality constraints. We show that the constrained quantile coefficient estimators…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-08 Yuan Sun , Zhou Zhou

We consider the problem of statistical learning for the intensity of a counting process with covariates. In this context, we introduce an empirical risk, and prove risk bounds for the corresponding empirical risk minimizers. Then, we give…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-30 Stéphane Gaïffas , Agathe Guilloux

Incremental learning from non-stationary data poses special challenges to the field of machine learning. Although new algorithms have been developed for this, assessment of results and comparison of behaviors are still open problems, mainly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-19 Alejandro Cervantes , Christian Gagné , Pedro Isasi , Marc Parizeau

The asymptotic variance is an important criterion to evaluate the performance of Markov chains, especially for the central limit theorems. We give the variational formulas for the asymptotic variance of discrete-time (non-reversible) Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-29 Lu-Jing Huang , Yong-Hua Mao

We study some regularity properties in locally stationary Markov models which are fundamental for controlling the bias of nonparametric kernel estimators. In particular, we provide an alternative to the standard notion of derivative process…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-07 Lionel Truquet

We prove the convergence at an exponential rate towards the invariant probability measure for a class of solutions of stochastic differential equations with finite delay. This is done, in this non-Markovian setting, using the cluster…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-11 Laure Pédèches

The Markov-Bernstein type inequalities between the norms of functions and of their derivatives are analysed for complex exponential polynomials. We establish a relation between the sharp constants in those inequalities and the stability…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2022-09-27 Vladimir Yu. Protasov

There is a lack of methodological results for continuous time change detection due to the challenges of noninformative prior specification and efficient posterior inference in this setting. Most methodologies to date assume data are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-28 Dan Cunha , Mark Friedl , Luis Carvalho

We consider distributed stochastic variational inequalities (VIs) on unbounded domains with the problem data that is heterogeneous (non-IID) and distributed across many devices. We make a very general assumption on the computational network…

We prove a non-asymptotic central limit theorem for vector-valued martingale differences using Stein's method, and use Poisson's equation to extend the result to functions of Markov Chains. We then show that these results can be applied to…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-10 R. Srikant

We consider the problem of estimating the asymptotic variance of a function defined on a Markov chain, an important step for statistical inference of the stationary mean. We design a novel recursive estimator that requires $O(1)$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-24 Shubhada Agrawal , Prashanth L. A. , Siva Theja Maguluri

We consider a system of $N$ particles interacting through their empirical distribution on a finite state space in continuous time. In the formal limit as $N\to\infty$, the system takes the form of a nonlinear (McKean--Vlasov) Markov chain.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-13 Asaf Cohen , Ethan Huffman

We develop the concept of exponential stochastic inequality (ESI), a novel notation that simultaneously captures high-probability and in-expectation statements. It is especially well suited to succinctly state, prove, and reason about…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-28 Peter D. Grünwald , Muriel F. Pérez-Ortiz , Zakaria Mhammedi

Queue networks describe complex stochastic systems of both theoretical and practical interest. They provide the means to assess alterations, diagnose poor performance and evaluate robustness across sets of interconnected resources. In the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-11-02 Iker Perez , David Hodge , Theodore Kypraios

Inference for mechanistic models is challenging because of nonlinear interactions between model parameters and a lack of identifiability. Here we focus on a specific class of mechanistic models, which we term stable differential equations.…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-13 Philip Maybank , Ingo Bojak , Richard G. Everitt