Related papers: Stochastic epidemics in a homogeneous community
In this paper we consider the stability of a class of deterministic and stochastic SEIRS epidemic models with delay. Indeed, we assume that the transmission rate could be stochastic and the presence of a latency period of $r$ consecutive…
After the introduction of drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments have adopted a strategy based on a periodic relaxation of such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis…
Stochastic epidemic models provide an interpretable probabilistic description of the spread of a disease through a population. Yet, fitting these models to partially observed data is a notoriously difficult task due to intractability of the…
Single virus epidemics over complete networks are widely explored in the literature as the fraction of infected nodes is, under appropriate microscopic modeling of the virus infection, a Markov process. With non-complete networks, this…
Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent…
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…
Stochastic infectious disease models capture uncertainty in public health outcomes and have become increasingly popular in epidemiological practice. However, calibrating these models to observed data is challenging with existing methods for…
When modelling metapopulation dynamics, the influence of a single patch on the metapopulation depends on the number of individuals in the patch. Since the population size has no natural upper limit, this leads to systems in which there are…
We develop a new methodology for the efficient computation of epidemic final size distributions for a broad class of Markovian models. We exploit a particular representation of the stochastic epidemic process to derive a method which is…
We explore how heterogeneity in the intensity of interactions between people affects epidemic spreading. For that, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible model on a complex network, where a link connecting individuals $i$ and $j$ is…
Risk-driven behavior provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce a general and flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in the…
This study conducts a comparative analysis of stochastic and deterministic models to better understand the dynamics of the HIV epidemic across genders. By incorporating gender-specific transmission probabilities and treatment uptake rates,…
In this article, we study an interacting particle system in the context of epidemiology where the individuals (particles) are characterized by their position and infection state. We begin with a description at the microscopic level where…
This paper presents a new view of household epidemic models, where the interaction between the households is of mean field type. We thus obtain in the limit of infinitely many households a nonlinear Markov process solution of a McKean -…
We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of…
Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts' distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts' movements are being used to describe these processes, to…
Heterogeneity is an important property of any population experiencing a disease. Here we apply general methods of the theory of heterogeneous populations to the simplest mathematical models in epidemiology. In particular, an SIR…
The spatial structure of populations is a key element in the understanding of the large scale spreading of epidemics. Motivated by the recent empirical evidence on the heterogeneous properties of transportation and commuting patterns among…
We study the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model of the spread of an endemic infection. We calculate an exact expression for the mean number of transmissions for all values of the population and the infectivity. We derive the large-N…
The manner epidemics occurs in a social network depends on various elements, with two of the most influential being the relationships among individuals in the population and the mechanism of transmission. In this paper, we assume that the…