Related papers: Stochastic epidemics in a homogeneous community
In the infectious disease literature, significant effort has been devoted to studying dynamics at a single scale. For example, compartmental models describing population-level dynamics are often formulated using differential equations. In…
We present a unified mathematical approach to epidemiological models with parametric heterogeneity, i.e., to the models that describe individuals in the population as having specific parameter (trait) values that vary from one individuals…
We study a stochastic epidemic model consisting of elements (organisms in a community or cells in tissue) with fixed positions, in which damage or disease is transmitted by diffusing agents ("signals") emitted by infected individuals. The…
Contacts between individuals serve as pathways where infections may propagate. These contact patterns can be represented by network structures. Static structures have been the common modeling paradigm but recent results suggest that…
We exhibit a stochastic discrete time model that has exactly the Eigen model as its deterministic continuous limit. Such model can be divided into two phases: reproduction followed by neutral selection. This result suggests that Eigen model…
We propose a Markovian stochastic approach to model the spread of a SARS-CoV-2-like infection within a closed group of humans. The model takes the form of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), whose states are given by the…
Tracking the spread of infectious disease during a pandemic has posed a great challenge to the governments and health sectors on a global scale. To facilitate informed public health decision-making, the concerned parties usually rely on…
We develop a new structured compartmental model for the coevolutionary dynamics between susceptible and infectious individuals in heterogeneous SI epidemiological systems. In this model, the susceptible compartment is structured by a…
We study a well mixed SIR epidemic model with heterogeneous susceptibility and infectivity, allowing for an arbitrary joint distribution of these traits. Using an exact final size formulation and a branching process approximation for early…
We consider a stochastic epidemic model with sideward contact tracing. We assume that infection is driven by interactions within mixing events (gatherings of two or more individuals). Once an infective is diagnosed, each individual who was…
We consider two approaches to study the spread of infectious diseases within a spatially structured population distributed in social clusters. According whether we consider only the population of infected individuals or both populations of…
We analytically address disease outbreaks in large, random networks with heterogeneous infectivity and susceptibility. The transmissibility $T_{uv}$ (the probability that infection of $u$ causes infection of $v$) depends on the infectivity…
Understanding infectious disease spread remains a critical public health challenge, particularly given the interplay between household dynamics and community transmission patterns. Traditional epidemiological models often oversimplify these…
We present a model of contagion that unifies and generalizes existing models of the spread of social influences and micro-organismal infections. Our model incorporates individual memory of exposure to a contagious entity (e.g., a rumor or…
At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented in order to reduce transmission, thus leading to multiple phases of transmission. The disease reproduction number $R_t$, a way of…
Traditional disease transmission models assume that the infectious period is exponentially distributed with a recovery rate fixed in time and across individuals. This assumption provides analytical and computational advantages, however it…
We introduce and study a model stemming from game theory for the spread of an epidemic throughout a given population. Each agent is allowed to choose an action whose value dictates to what extent they limit their social interactions, if at…
We study how the interplay between the memory immune response and pathogen mutation affects epidemic dynamics in two related models. The first explicitly models pathogen mutation and individual memory immune responses, with contacted…
When modelling metapopulation dynamics, the influence of a single patch on the metapopulation depends on the number of individuals in the patch. Since there is usually no obvious natural upper limit on the number of individuals in a patch,…
The aim of the paper is to describe a model of the development of the Covid-19 contamination of the population of a country or a region. For this purpose a special branching process with two types of individuals is considered. This model is…