Related papers: Brexit: The Belated Threat
The outcome of some football matches has benefited both teams at the expense of a third team because head-to-head results were used for breaking ties. Inspired by these examples, our mathematical analysis identifies all possible collusion…
We construct a data-driven statistical indicator for quantifying the tail risk perceived by the EURGBP option market surrounding Brexit-related events. We show that under lognormal SABR dynamics this tail risk is closely related to the…
The energy transition is well underway in most European countries. It has a growing impact on electric power systems as it dramatically modifies the way electricity is produced. To ensure a safe and smooth transition towards a pan-European…
How do European publics debate a geopolitical crisis on social media, and do they inhabit a shared informational reality? We analyze over 38 million geolocated tweets from 20 European countries during the first eight months of the Russian…
The European Union (EU) has been pursuing new cyber security policies in recent years. This paper presents a short reflection of four such policies. The focus is on potential incoherency, meaning a lack of integration, divergence between…
In certain bodies, like the Council of the EU, the member states have a voting weight which depends on the population of the re- spective state. In this article we ask the question which voting weight guarantees a `fair' representation of…
Multiple countries have recently experienced extreme political polarization, which in some cases led to escalation of hate crime, violence and political instability. Beside the much discussed presidential elections in the United States and…
We study how office-seeking parties use direct democracy to shape elections. A party with a strong electoral base can benefit from using a binding referendum to resolve issues that divide its core supporters. When referendums do not bind,…
Although employment web sites have recently become the main source for re- cruitment and selection process, the relation between those sites and unemploy- ment rates is seldom addressed. Deriving data from 32 countries and 427 web sites,…
This paper introduces a novel Bayesian reverse unrestricted mixed-frequency model applied to a panel of nine European electricity markets. Our model analyzes the impact of daily fossil fuel prices and hourly renewable energy generation on…
In recent years, enlargement of the European Union has led to increased interest in the allocation of voting weights to member states with hugely differing population numbers. While the eventually agreed voting scheme lacks any strict…
The outcome of the British General Election to be held in just over one week's time is widely regarded as the most difficult in living memory to predict. Current polls suggest that the two main parties are neck and neck but that there will…
This paper examines the impact of climate shocks on 13 European economies analysing jointly business and financial cycles, in different phases and disentangling the effects for different sector channels. A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching…
The preparedness and readiness of Europe is currently being challenged not only by Russia, but since recently also by its long-standing allies. In response to the evolving external security environment, the EU's White Paper on European…
Risk-limiting audits (RLAs) are expected to strengthen the public confidence in the correctness of an election outcome. We hypothesize that this is not always the case, in part because for large margins between the winner and the runner-up,…
The global carbon market is fragmented and characterized by limited pricing transparency and empirical evidence, creating challenges for investors and policymakers in identifying carbon management opportunities. The European Union is among…
Human dynamics and sociophysics suggest statistical models that may explain and provide us with better insight into social phenomena. Contextual and selection effects tend to produce extreme values in the tails of rank-ordered distributions…
In modern democracies, the outcome of elections and referendums is often remarkably tight. The repetition of these divisive events are the hallmark of a split society; to the physicist, however, it is an astonishing feat for such large…
This paper examines the impact of financial risks on economic growth in the first 15 Member States of the European Union, considering 1995-2014 period and aims to lay down a new explanatory model of economic growth, based mainly on the…
This paper investigates how economic shocks propagate and amplify through the input-output network connecting industrial sectors in developed economies. We study alternative models of diffusion on networks and we calibrate them using…