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For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian

We consider the problem of constructing bounds on the average treatment effect (ATE) when unmeasured confounders exist but have bounded influence. Specifically, we assume that omitted confounders could not change the odds of treatment for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-25 Jacob Dorn , Kevin Guo , Nathan Kallus

While many areas of machine learning have benefited from the increasing availability of large and varied datasets, the benefit to causal inference has been limited given the strong assumptions needed to ensure identifiability of causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-02 Wenshuo Guo , Serena Wang , Peng Ding , Yixin Wang , Michael I. Jordan

Establishing cause-effect relationships from observational data often relies on untestable assumptions. It is crucial to know whether, and to what extent, the conclusions drawn from non-experimental studies are robust to potential…

In observational studies, identification of ATEs is generally achieved by assuming that the correct set of confounders has been measured and properly included in the relevant models. Because this assumption is both strong and untestable, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-18 Matteo Bonvini , Edward H Kennedy

In many social, behavioral, and biomedical sciences, treatment effect estimation is a crucial step in understanding the impact of an intervention, policy, or treatment. In recent years, an increasing emphasis has been placed on…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Xinhai Zhang , Xingye Qiao

Causal inference from observational datasets often relies on measuring and adjusting for covariates. In practice, measurements of the covariates can often be noisy and/or biased, or only measurements of their proxies may be available.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Wenshuo Guo , Mingzhang Yin , Yixin Wang , Michael I. Jordan

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are widely regarded as the gold standard for causal inference in biomedical research. For instance, when estimating the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT), a doubly robust estimation procedure…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-26 Chi-Shian Dai , Chao Ying , Yang Ning , Jiwei Zhao

Augmented inverse probability weighting and G-computation with canonical generalized linear models have become increasingly popular for estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) in randomized experiments. These methods leverage outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-13 Muluneh Alene , Stijn Vansteelandt , Kelly Van Lancker

The estimation of average treatment effects (ATEs), defined as the difference in expected outcomes between treatment and control groups, is a central topic in causal inference. This study develops semiparametric efficient estimators for ATE…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Masahiro Kato , Fumiaki Kozai , Ryo Inokuchi

Inferring causal relationships between variable pairs in the observational study is crucial but challenging, due to the presence of unmeasured confounding. While previous methods employed the negative controls to adjust for the confounding…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-21 Yong Wu , Yanwei Fu , Shouyan Wang , Yizhou Wang , Xinwei Sun

In causal inference, whether through randomized controlled trials or observational studies, access to both treated and control units is essential for estimating the effect of a treatment on an outcome of interest. When treatment assignment…

Many proposals for the identification of causal effects require an instrumental variable that satisfies strong, untestable unconfoundedness and exclusion restriction assumptions. In this paper, we show how one can potentially identify…

Given only data generated by a standard confounding graph with unobserved confounder, the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is not identifiable. To estimate the ATE, a practitioner must then either (a) collect deconfounded data;(b) run a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-09 Kyra Gan , Andrew A. Li , Zachary C. Lipton , Sridhar Tayur

Conditional effect estimation has great scientific and policy importance because interventions may impact subjects differently depending on their characteristics. Most research has focused on estimating the conditional average treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-25 Alec McClean , Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy

One of the major challenges in estimating conditional potential outcomes and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is the presence of hidden confounders. Since testing for hidden confounders cannot be accomplished only with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Ahmed Aloui , Juncheng Dong , Ali Hasan , Vahid Tarokh

For settings with a binary treatment and a binary outcome, instrumental variables can be used to construct bounds on a causal treatment effect. With continuous outcomes, meaningful bounds are more difficult to obtain because the domain of…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-26 Tao Liu , Joseph W. Hogan

Unmeasured confounding is a key challenge for causal inference. In this paper, we establish a framework for unmeasured confounding adjustment with negative control variables. A negative control outcome is associated with the confounder but…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-09 Wang Miao , Xu Shi , Yilin Li , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

An important aspect of the performance of algorithms that predict individualized treatment effects (ITE) is moderate calibration, i.e., the average treatment effect among individuals with predicted treatment effect of z being equal to z.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-10 Mohsen Sadatsafavi , Jeroen Hoogland , Thomas P. A. Debray , John Petkau

We propose a double robust Bayesian inference procedure on the average treatment effect (ATE) under unconfoundedness. For our new Bayesian approach, we first adjust the prior distributions of the conditional mean functions, and then correct…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-26 Christoph Breunig , Ruixuan Liu , Zhengfei Yu
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