Related papers: Rao-Blackwellizing Field Goal Percentage
This paper presents a new approach to conditional inference, based on the simulation of samples conditioned by a statistics of the data. Also an explicit expression for the approximation of the conditional likelihood of long runs of the…
Due to the limitations of the robotic sensors, during a robotic manipulation task, the acquisition of the object's state can be unreliable and noisy. Combining an accurate model of multi-body dynamic system with Bayesian filtering methods…
Statistical applications in sports have long centered on how to best separate signal (e.g. team talent) from random noise. However, most of this work has concentrated on a single sport, and the development of meaningful cross-sport…
The speed-accuracy tradeoffs are prevalent in a wide range of physical systems. In this paper, we demonstrate speed-accuracy tradeoffs in the game of cricket, where 'batters' score runs on the balls bowled by the 'bowlers'. It is shown that…
The Rao-Blackwell theorem is utilized to analyze and improve the scalability of inference in large probabilistic models that exhibit symmetries. A novel marginal density estimator is introduced and shown both analytically and empirically to…
An enduring issue in higher education is student retention to successful graduation. National statistics indicate that most higher education institutions have four-year degree completion rates around 50 percent, or just half of their…
We introduce a new online algorithm for expected log-likelihood maximization in situations where the objective function is multi-modal and/or has saddle points, that we term G-PFSO. The key element underpinning G-PFSO is a probability…
Previous work on fantasy basketball quantifies player value for category leagues without taking draft circumstances into account. Quantifying value in this way is convenient, but inherently limited as a strategy, because it precludes the…
The hot-hand theory posits that an athlete who has performed well in the recent past performs better in the present. We use multilevel logistic regression to test this theory for National Hockey League playoff goaltenders, controlling for a…
In this paper, we present a new model for ranking sports teams. Our model uses all scoring data from all games to produce a functional rating by the method of least squares. The functional rating can be interpreted as a teams average point…
We wish to compute the gradient of an expectation over a finite or countably infinite sample space having $K \leq \infty$ categories. When $K$ is indeed infinite, or finite but very large, the relevant summation is intractable. Accordingly,…
The field of quantitative analytics has transformed the world of sports over the last decade. To date, these analytic approaches are statistical at their core, characterizing what is and what was, while using this information to drive…
During the last few sports seasons a lot of discussion has been generated for the several, high-profile, "comebacks" that were observed in almost all sports. The Cavaliers won the championship after being down 3-1 in the 2016 NBA finals'…
Huge amounts of money are invested every year by football clubs on transfers. For both growth and survival, it is crucial for recruiting departments to make smart choices when targeting players. Therefore, it is very important to identify…
A typical approach to quantify the contribution of each player in basketball uses the plus-minus method. The ratings obtained by such a method are estimated using simple regression models and their regularized variants, with response…
This paper generalizes the notion of sufficiency for estimation problems beyond maximum likelihood. In particular, we consider estimation problems based on Jones et al. and Basu et al. likelihood functions that are popular among…
We consider the problem of parameter estimation for a class of continuous-time state space models. In particular, we explore the case of a partially observed diffusion, with data also arriving according to a diffusion process. Based upon a…
We extract and use player position time-series data, tagged along with the action types, to build a competent model for representing team tactics behavioral patterns and use this representation to predict the outcome of arbitrary movements.…
Poyiadjis et al. (2011) show how particle methods can be used to estimate both the score and the observed information matrix for state space models. These methods either suffer from a computational cost that is quadratic in the number of…
Each ballpark has a different size in baseball. It could be easily imagined that there would be many home runs in a small ballpark. Moreover, the environment of the ballpark, such as altitude, humidity, air pressure, and wind strength,…