Related papers: Rao-Blackwellizing Field Goal Percentage
Agent forecasting systems have been explored to investigate agent patterns and improve decision-making in various domains, e.g., pedestrian predictions and marketing bidding. Badminton represents a fascinating example of a multifaceted…
Modern basketball is all about creating efficient shots, that is, shots with high payoff. This is not necessarily equivalent to creating looks with the highest probability of success. In particular, the two most efficient shots in the NBA -…
Previous work on fantasy basketball has established methods for optimizing team construction for head-to-head formats. This has been facilitated by the straightforwardness of calculating the objective function for those formats, given that…
There seems to be an upper limit to predicting the outcome of matches in (semi-)professional sports. Recent work has proposed that this is due to chance and attempts have been made to simulate the distribution of win percentages to identify…
Continuous-time assessments of game outcomes in sports have become increasingly common in the last decade. In American football, only discrete-time estimates of play value were possible, since the most advanced public football datasets were…
Sports tracking data are the high-resolution spatiotemporal observations of a competitive event. The growing collection of these data in professional sport allows us to address a fundamental problem of modern sport: how to attribute value…
American football is an increasingly popular sport, with a growing audience in many countries in the world. The most watched American football league in the world is the United States' National Football League (NFL), where every offensive…
Basketball players' performance measurement is of critical importance for a broad spectrum of decisions related to training and game strategy. Despite this recognized central role, the main part of the studies on this topic focus on…
In this paper, we develop a group learning approach to analyze the underlying heterogeneity structure of shot selection among professional basketball players in the NBA. We propose a mixture of finite mixtures (MFM) model to capture the…
Fantasy Premier League (FPL) performance predictors tend to base their algorithms purely on historical statistical data. The main problems with this approach is that external factors such as injuries, managerial decisions and other…
Predicting outcomes in sports is important for teams, leagues, bettors, media, and fans. Given the growing amount of player tracking data, sports analytics models are increasingly utilizing spatially-derived features built upon player…
We report an emergence of bifurcation in basketball, a single-particle system governed by Newtonian mechanics. When shooting the basketball, the obvious control parameters are the launch speed and the launch angle. We propose to use the…
This paper introduces a score-driven rating system, a generalization of the classical Elo rating system that employs the score, i.e. the gradient of the log-likelihood, as the updating mechanism for player and team ratings. The proposed…
We introduce a compact probabilistic model for two-player and two-team (four-player) squash matches, along with a practical skill-comparison rule derived from point-scoring probabilities. Using recorded shot types and court locations, we…
Numerous statistics have been proposed for the measure of offensive ability in major league baseball. While some of these measures may offer moderate predictive power in certain situations, it is unclear which simple offensive metrics are…
This study proposes a centimeter-accurate positioning method that utilizes a Rao-Blackwellized particle filter (RBPF) without requiring integer ambiguity resolution in global navigation satellite system (GNSS) carrier phase measurements.…
In this paper, we propose a Bayesian predictive density estimator to predict the time until the r-th goal is scored in a hockey game, using ancillary information such as their performances in the past, points and specialists' opinions. To…
Do NFL teams make rational decisions? What factors potentially affect the probability of wining a game in NFL? How can a team come back from a demoralizing interception? In this study we begin by examining the hypothesis of rational…
This paper studies the relationship between basketball teams' four factors and efficiency ratings as defined by Oliver (2004). The paper introduces an equation showing how a team's four factors in conjunction with its field goal and free…
Although basketball is a dynamic process sport, with 5 plus 5 players competing on both offense and defense simultaneously, learning some static information is predominant for professional players, coaches and team mangers. In order to have…