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Since the inception of Bitcoin in 2008, cryptocurrencies have played an increasing role in the world of e-commerce, but the recent turbulence in the cryptocurrency market in 2018 has raised some concerns about their stability and associated…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-14 Yan Gong , Raphaël Huser

In this study, we perform some analysis for the probability distributions in the space of frequency and time variables. However, in the domain of high frequencies, it behaves in such a way as the highly non-linear dynamics. The wavelet…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-22 Tatsuru Kikuchi

Daily probability changes in Kalshi macro prediction markets forecast cryptocurrency realized volatility through two distinct channels. The monetary policy channel, measured by Fed rate repricing on KXFED contracts, predicts Bitcoin…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-03 Hardhik Mohanty , Bhaskar Krishnamachari

In recent years cryptocurrency trading has captured the attention of practitioners and academics. The volume of the exchange with standard currencies has known a dramatic increasing of late. This paper addresses to the need of models…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-02-18 Pablo Olivares

Cryptocurrencies and blockchain networks have attracted tremendous attention from their volatile price movements and the promise of decentralization. However, most projects run on business narratives with no way to test and verify their…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2019-07-02 Zixuan Zhang

This paper studies the dynamic market linkages among cryptocurrencies during August 2015 - July 2020 and finds a substantial increase in market linkages for both returns and volatilities. We use different methodologies to check the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-01 Nektarios Aslanidis , Aurelio F. Bariviera , Alejandro Perez-Laborda

Academics increasingly acknowledge the predictive power of social media for a wide variety of events and, more specifically, for financial markets. Anecdotal and empirical findings show that cryptocurrencies are among the financial assets…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2024-11-11 Meysam Alizadeh , Yasaman Asgari , Zeynab Samei , Sara Yari , Shirin Dehghani , Mael Kubli , Darya Zare , Juan Diego Bermeo , Veronika Batzdorfer , Fabrizio Gilardi

We model financial transactions as random walks on activity-driven temporal networks. By enforcing fund conservation, our framework analytically derives heavy-tailed distributions for the stationary balances and transaction sizes.…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-02-25 Carolina E. Mattsson , Claudio Cellerini , Jaume Ojer , Michele Starnini

Understanding the variations in trading price (volatility), and its response to exogenous information, is a well-researched topic in finance. In this study, we focus on finding stable and accurate volatility predictors for a relatively new…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-12-07 M. Eren Akbiyik , Mert Erkul , Killian Kaempf , Vaiva Vasiliauskaite , Nino Antulov-Fantulin

Forecasting cryptocurrency prices is hindered by extreme volatility and a methodological dilemma between information-scarce univariate models and noise-prone full-multivariate models. This paper investigates a partial-multivariate approach…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-05 Andrzej Tokajuk , Jarosław A. Chudziak

We develop a new framework to detect wash trading in crypto assets through real-time liquidity fluctuation. We propose that short-term price jumps in crypto assets results from wash trading-induced liquidity fluctuation, and construct two…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-01 Qi Deng , Zhong-Guo Zhou

Social media signals have been successfully used to develop large-scale predictive and anticipatory analytics. For example, forecasting stock market prices and influenza outbreaks. Recently, social data has been explored to forecast price…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-02 Maria Glenski , Tim Weninger , Svitlana Volkova

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) as a decentralized proof of ownership represent one of the main reasons why Ethereum is a disruptive technology. This paper presents the first systematic study of the interactions occurring in a number of NFT…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-10-26 S. Casale-Brunet , P. Ribeca , P. Doyle , M. Mattavelli

Cryptocurrencies are digital tokens built on blockchain technology, with thousands actively traded on centralized exchanges (CEXs). Unlike stocks, which are backed by real businesses, cryptocurrencies are recognized as a distinct class of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-18 Yu Zhang , Zelin Wu , Claudio Tessone

A non-fungible token (NFT) market is a new trading invention based on the blockchain technology which parallels the cryptocurrency market. In the present work we study capitalization, floor price, the number of transactions, the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-01-17 Paweł Szydło , Marcin Wątorek , Jarosław Kwapień , Stanisław Drożdż

The non-fungible token (NFT) is an emergent type of cryptocurrency that has garnered extensive attention since its inception. The uniqueness, indivisibility and humanistic value of NFTs are the key characteristics that distinguish them from…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-01-10 Yixiang Tan , Zhiying Wu , Jieli Liu , Jiajing Wu , Zibin Zheng , Ting Chen

In the dynamic landscape of the Web, we are witnessing the emergence of the Web3 paradigm, which dictates that platforms should rely on blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies to sustain themselves and their profitability.…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-03-20 Cheick Tidiane Ba , Richard G. Clegg , Ben A. Steer , Matteo Zignani

Stablecoins, digital assets pegged to a specific currency or commodity value, are heavily involved in transactions of major cryptocurrencies. The effects of deviations from their desired fixed values (depeggings) on the cryptocurrencies for…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-05-16 Connor Oxenhorn

Interest in cryptocurrencies has skyrocketed since their introduction a decade ago, with hundreds of billions of dollars now invested across a landscape of thousands of different cryptocurrencies. While there is significant diversity, there…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2018-10-22 Pierre Reibel , Haaroon Yousaf , Sarah Meiklejohn

The cryptocurrency market is volatile, non-stationary and non-continuous. Together with liquid derivatives markets, this poses a unique opportunity to study risk management, especially the hedging of options, in a turbulent market. We study…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2022-12-05 Jovanka Lili Matic , Natalie Packham , Wolfgang Karl Härdle
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