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This paper formed part of a preliminary research report for a risk consultancy and academic research. Stochastic Programming models provide a powerful paradigm for decision making under uncertainty. In these models the uncertainties are…

This paper explores the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks for economic forecasting, focusing on predicting CPI inflation rates. The study explores a new approach that integrates…

We consider Markov Decision Problems defined over continuous state and action spaces, where an autonomous agent seeks to learn a map from its states to actions so as to maximize its long-term discounted accumulation of rewards. We address…

The weighted ensemble (WE) simulation strategy provides unbiased sampling of non-equilibrium processes, such as molecular folding or binding, but the extraction of rate constants relies on characterizing steady state behavior.…

Inferring time-varying networks is important to understand the development and evolution of interactions over time. However, the vast majority of currently used models assume direct measurements of node states, which are often difficult to…

Hidden semi-Markov Models (HSMM's) - while broadly in use - are restricted to a discrete and uniform time grid. They are thus not well suited to explain often irregularly spaced discrete event data from continuous-time phenomena. We show…

1. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are powerful tools for modelling time-series data with underlying state structure. However, selecting appropriate parametric forms for the state-dependent distributions is often challenging and can lead to…

The partially observable hidden Markov model is an extension of the hidden Markov Model in which the hidden state is conditioned on an independent Markov chain. This structure is motivated by the presence of discrete metadata, such as an…

The objective is to study an on-line Hidden Markov model (HMM) estimation-based Q-learning algorithm for partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) on finite state and action sets. When the full state observation is available,…

In this paper, we introduce a variant of hidden Markov models in which the transition probabilities between the states, as well as the emission distributions, are not constant in time but vary in a periodic manner. This class of models,…

[This paper was initially published in PHME conference in 2016, selected for further publication in International Journal of Prognostics and Health Management.] This paper describes an Autoregressive Partially-hidden Markov model (ARPHMM)…

We introduce kernel density machines (KDM), an agnostic kernel-based framework for learning the Radon-Nikodym derivative (density) between probability measures under minimal assumptions. KDM applies to general measurable spaces and avoids…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are a versatile statistical framework commonly used in ecology to characterize behavioural patterns from animal movement data. In HMMs, the observed data depend on a finite number of underlying hidden states,…

This report describes a new technique for inducing the structure of Hidden Markov Models from data which is based on the general `model merging' strategy (Omohundro 1992). The process begins with a maximum likelihood HMM that directly…

Environmental time series data observed at high frequencies can be studied with approaches such as hidden Markov and semi-Markov models (HMM and HSMM). HSMMs extend the HMM by explicitly modeling the time spent in each state. In a…

We introduce an extension of finite mixture models by incorporating skew-normal distributions within a Hidden Markov Model framework. By assuming a constant transition probability matrix and allowing emission distributions to vary according…

This work aims at providing a new model for time series classification based on learning from just one example. We assume that time series can be well characterized as a parametric random process, a sort of Hidden semi-Markov Model…

Language models based on deep neural networks and traditional stochastic modelling have become both highly functional and effective in recent times. In this work, a general survey into the two types of language modelling is conducted. We…

Genetic sequence data are well described by hidden Markov models (HMMs) in which latent states correspond to clusters of similar mutation patterns. Theory from statistical genetics suggests that these HMMs are nonhomogeneous (their…

Jump Markov linear models consists of a finite number of linear state space models and a discrete variable encoding the jumps (or switches) between the different linear models. Identifying jump Markov linear models makes for a challenging…