Related papers: Kernel Density Estimation-Based Markov Models with…

Stochastic models of biochemical reaction networks are widely used to capture intrinsic noise in cellular systems. The typical formulation of these models are based on Markov processes for which there is extensive research on efficient…

Marcus stochastic delay differential equations (SDDEs) are often used to model stochastic dynamical systems with memory in science and engineering. Since no infinitesimal generators exist for Marcus SDDEs due to the non-Markovian property,…

De-interleaving of the mixtures of Hidden Markov Processes (HMPs) generally depends on its representation model. Existing representation models consider Markov chain mixtures rather than hidden Markov, resulting in the lack of robustness to…

Finite state space hidden Markov models are flexible tools to model phenomena with complex time dependencies: any process distribution can be approximated by a hidden Markov model with enough hidden states.We consider the problem of…

This paper introduces a novel kernel density estimator (KDE) based on the generalised exponential (GE) distribution, designed specifically for positive continuous data. The proposed GE KDE offers a mathematically tractable form that avoids…

A workload analysis technique is presented that processes data from operation type traces and creates a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to represent the workload that generated those traces. The HMM can be used to create representative traces for…

This paper introduces Discrete Markov Probabilistic Models (DMPMs), a novel discrete diffusion algorithm for discrete data generation. The algorithm operates in discrete bit space, where the noising process is a continuous-time Markov chain…

As deep neural networks continue to revolutionize various application domains, there is increasing interest in making these powerful models more understandable and interpretable, and narrowing down the causes of good and bad predictions. We…

We present a novel method for solving population density equations (PDEs), where the populations can be subject to non-Markov noise for arbitrary distributions of jump sizes. The method combines recent developments in two different…

In this article a flexible Bayesian non-parametric model is proposed for non-homogeneous hidden Markov models. The model is developed through the amalgamation of the ideas of hidden Markov models and predictor dependent stick-breaking…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are general purpose models for time-series data widely used across the sciences because of their flexibility and elegance. However fitting HMMs can often be computationally demanding and time consuming,…

Autoregressive Markov switching (ARMS) time series models are used to represent real-world signals whose dynamics may change over time. They have found application in many areas of the natural and social sciences, as well as in engineering.…

Extending classical probabilistic reasoning using the quantum mechanical view of probability has been of recent interest, particularly in the development of hidden quantum Markov models (HQMMs) to model stochastic processes. However, there…

We propose a novel nonparametric approach for linking covariates to Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMCs) using the mathematical framework of Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS). CTMCs provide a robust framework for modeling…

This work studies networked agents cooperating to track a dynamical state of nature under partial information. The proposed algorithm is a distributed Bayesian filtering algorithm for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). It can be used…

Learning probabilistic models that can estimate the density of a given set of samples, and generate samples from that density, is one of the fundamental challenges in unsupervised machine learning. We introduce a new generative model based…

Hidden Markov Models (HMM) have been used for several years in many time series analysis or pattern recognitions tasks. HMM are often trained by means of the Baum-Welch algorithm which can be seen as a special variant of an expectation…

This paper studies the robustness of quasi-maximum-likelihood (QML) estimation in hidden Markov models (HMMs) when the regime-switching structure is misspecified. Specifically, we examine the case where the true data-generating process…

The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…

The Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) is a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the classical Hidden Markov Model for learning from (spatio-)temporal data. A sticky HDP-HMM has been proposed to strengthen…