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We frame the meta-learning of prediction procedures as a search for an optimal strategy in a two-player game. In this game, Nature selects a prior over distributions that generate labeled data consisting of features and an associated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-29 Alex Luedtke , Incheoul Chung , Oleg Sofrygin

We study the classical problem of prediction with expert advice in the adversarial setting with a geometric stopping time. In 1965, Cover gave the optimal algorithm for the case of 2 experts. In this paper, we design the optimal algorithm,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-07-12 Nick Gravin , Yuval Peres , Balasubramanian Sivan

Building defect prediction models based on online learning can enhance prediction accuracy. It continuously rebuilds a new prediction model, when a new data point is added. However, a module predicted as "non-defective" can result in fewer…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2024-04-18 Nikolay Fedorov , Yuta Yamasaki , Masateru Tsunoda , Akito Monden , Amjed Tahir , Kwabena Ebo Bennin , Koji Toda , Keitaro Nakasai

Accurate uncertainty estimates are important in sequential model-based decision-making tasks such as Bayesian optimization. However, these estimates can be imperfect if the data violates assumptions made by the model (e.g., Gaussianity).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-27 Shachi Deshpande , Charles Marx , Volodymyr Kuleshov

This paper studies theoretically and empirically a method of turning machine-learning algorithms into probabilistic predictors that automatically enjoys a property of validity (perfect calibration) and is computationally efficient. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-16 Vladimir Vovk , Ivan Petej , Valentina Fedorova

Uncertainty in optimization is often represented as stochastic parameters in the optimization model. In Predict-Then-Optimize approaches, predictions of a machine learning model are used as values for such parameters, effectively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-03 Pieter Smet

We study online multicalibration beyond the worst-case. We give a single, efficient algorithm which dynamically interpolates between benign and worst-case sequences by adaptively refining a dyadic grid of prediction values. Its error is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Zhiming Huang , Jamie Morgenstern , Aaron Roth , Claire Jie Zhang

Online matching problems arise in many complex systems, from cloud services and online marketplaces to organ exchange networks, where timely, principled decisions are critical for maintaining high system performance. Traditional heuristics…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-09 Chiara Mignacco , Matthieu Jonckheere , Gilles Stoltz

We consider the problem of estimating piecewise regular functions in an online setting, i.e., the data arrive sequentially and at any round our task is to predict the value of the true function at the next revealed point using the available…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-04-01 Sabyasachi Chatterjee , Subhajit Goswami

We consider the problem of sequentially making decisions that are rewarded by "successes" and "failures" which can be predicted through an unknown relationship that depends on a partially controllable vector of attributes for each instance.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-18 Yingfei Wang , Chu Wang , Warren Powell

The exponential growth of volume, variety and velocity of data is raising the need for investigations of automated or semi-automated ways to extract useful patterns from the data. It requires deep expert knowledge and extensive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-22 Abbas Raza Ali , Marcin Budka , Bogdan Gabrys

This work studies and develop projection-free algorithms for online learning with linear optimization oracles (a.k.a. Frank-Wolfe) for handling the constraint set. More precisely, this work (i) provides an improved (optimized) variant of an…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-05-20 Julien Weibel , Pierre Gaillard , Wouter M. Koolen , Adrien Taylor

We consider two scenarios of multiclass online learning of a hypothesis class $H\subseteq Y^X$. In the {\em full information} scenario, the learner is exposed to instances together with their labels. In the {\em bandit} scenario, the true…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-07-10 Amit Daniely , Tom Helbertal

We study an online forecasting setting in which, over $T$ rounds, $N$ strategic experts each report a forecast to a mechanism, the mechanism selects one forecast, and then the outcome is revealed. In any given round, each expert has a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Junpei Komiyama , Nishant A. Mehta , Ali Mortazavi

Despite the considerable success enjoyed by machine learning techniques in practice, numerous studies demonstrated that many approaches are vulnerable to attacks. An important class of such attacks involves adversaries changing features at…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-07 Liang Tong , Sixie Yu , Scott Alfeld , Yevgeniy Vorobeychik

We consider an online two-stage stochastic optimization with long-term constraints over a finite horizon of $T$ periods. At each period, we take the first-stage action, observe a model parameter realization and then take the second-stage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-03 Piao Hu , Jiashuo Jiang , Guodong Lyu , Hao Su

Online learning aims to perform nearly as well as the best hypothesis in hindsight. For some hypothesis classes, though, even finding the best hypothesis offline is challenging. In such offline cases, local search techniques are often…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Michael Bowling , Martin Zinkevich

The task of learning to pick a single preferred example out a finite set of examples, an "optimal choice problem", is a supervised machine learning problem with complex, structured input. Problems of optimal choice emerge often in various…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-07-07 Marina Sapir

We consider the problem of strategic classification, where a learner must build a model to classify agents based on features that have been strategically modified. Previous work in this area has concentrated on the case when the learner is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-19 Jack Geary , Henry Gouk

The standard model and the bandit model are two generalizations of the mistake-bound model to online multiclass classification. In both models the learner guesses a classification in each round, but in the standard model the learner…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2021-02-02 Jesse Geneson