Related papers: Investigating Wheat Price with a Multi-Agent Model
In this study we continue to search for possible manifestations of space weather influence on prices of agricultural products and consumables. We note that the connection between solar activity and prices is based on the causal chain that…
Wheat is the main agricultural crop of Pakistan and is a staple food requirement of almost every Pakistani household making it the main strategic commodity of the country whose availability and affordability is the government's main…
The financialization of agricultural commodities and its impact on food security has become an increasing concern. This study empirically investigates the role of financialization in global food markets and its policy implications for a…
Analyzing available FAO data from 176 countries over 21 years, we observe an increase of complexity in the international trade of maize, rice, soy, and wheat. A larger number of countries play a role as producers or intermediaries, either…
Global trade is shaped by a complex mix of factors beyond supply and demand, including tangible variables like transport costs and tariffs, as well as less quantifiable influences such as political and economic relations. Traditionally,…
Using global wheat trade data and a network model for shock propagation, we study the impact of the Ukrainian crisis on food security. Depending on the level of reduction in Ukrainian wheat exports, the number of additional individuals…
Global concern over food prices and security has been exacerbated by the impacts of armed conflicts such as the Russia Ukraine War, pandemic diseases, and climate change. Traditionally, analyzing global food prices and their associations…
Recent increases in basic food prices are severely impacting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol…
The motivation for focusing on economic sanctions is the mixed evidence of their effectiveness. We assess the role of sanctions on the Russian international trade flow of agricultural products after 2014. We use a differences-in-differences…
Increases in global food prices have led to widespread hunger and social unrest---and an imperative to understand their causes. In a previous paper published in September 2011, we constructed for the first time a dynamic model that…
Ensuring food security is a critical global challenge, particularly for low-income countries where food prices impact the access to nutritious food. The volatility of global agricultural commodity (AC) prices exacerbates food insecurity,…
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a growing concern worldwide and poses serious threats to regional and global food security. Using monthly trade data for maize, rice, and wheat from 2016/1 to 2022/12, this paper constructs three international…
The prediction of crop yields internationally is a crucial objective in agricultural research. Thus, this study implements 6 regression models (Linear, Tree, Gradient Descent, Gradient Boosting, K Nearest Neighbors, and Random Forest) to…
International food trade is a growing complement to gaps in domestic food supply and demand, but it is vulnerable to disruptions due to some unforeseen shocks. This paper assembles the international crop trade networks using maize, rice,…
The 2022 Russia Ukraine War has led to many sanctions being placed on Russia and Ukraine. The paper will discuss the impact the 2022 Russian Sanctions have on agricultural food prices and hunger. The paper also uses Instrumental Variable…
Apparently random financial fluctuations often exhibit varying levels of complexity, chaos. Given limited data, predictability of such time series becomes hard to infer. While efficient methods of Lyapunov exponent computation are devised,…
The database of Prof. Rogers (1887), which includes wheat prices in England in the Middle Ages, was used to search for a possible influence of solar activity on the wheat market. We present a conceptual model of possible modes for…
Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have looked for ways to limit Russia's oil income. This paper considers, theoretically and quantitatively, two such options: 1) an export-quantity restriction and 2) a forced…
The effects of weather on agriculture in recent years have become a major global concern. Hence, the need for an effective weather risk management tool (i.e., weather derivatives) that can hedge crop yields against weather uncertainties.…
Recent droughts in the midwestern United States threaten to cause global catastrophe driven by a speculator amplified food price bubble. Here we show the effect of speculators on food prices using a validated quantitative model that…