Related papers: Investigating Wheat Price with a Multi-Agent Model
We investigate an economic system in which one large agent - the Japan government changes the environment of numerous smaller agents - the Japan agriculture producers by indirect regulation of prices of agriculture goods. The reason for…
Purpose: Trading on electricity markets occurs such that the price settlement takes place before delivery, often day-ahead. In practice, these prices are highly volatile as they largely depend upon a range of variables such as electricity…
We investigate high frequency price dynamics in foreign exchange market using data from Reuters information system (the dataset has been provided to us by Ols en & Associates). In our analysis we show that a na\"ive approach to the…
Prediction markets mobilize financial incentives to forecast binary event outcomes through the aggregation of dispersed beliefs and heterogeneous information. Their growing popularity and demonstrated predictive accuracy in political…
Global supply networks in agriculture, manufacturing, and services are a defining feature of the modern world. The efficiency and the distribution of surpluses across different parts of these networks depend on choices of intermediaries.…
This paper introduces a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework within a fully probabilistic setting for crop yield estimation, model selection, and uncertainty forecasting under multiple future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. By…
Crude oil is a major component in most advanced economies of the world. Accurately predicting and understanding the behavior of crude oil prices is important for economists, analysts, forecasters, and traders, to name a few. The price of…
This paper combines the Copula-CoVaR approach with the ARMA-GARCH-skewed Student-t model to investigate the tail dependence structure and extreme risk spillover effects between the international agricultural futures and spot markets, taking…
Grains account for more than 50% of the calories consumed by people worldwide, and military conflicts, pandemics, climate change, and soaring grain prices all have vital impacts on food security. However, the complex price behavior of the…
We present a fully automated model for in-season crop yield prediction, designed to work where there is a dearth of sub-national "ground truth" information. Our approach relies primarily on satellite data and is characterized by careful…
Climate is an evolving complex system with dynamic interactions and non-linear feedback mechanisms, shaping environmental and socio-economic outcomes. Crop production is highly sensitive to climatic fluctuations (and many other…
We analyze the effects of energy and commodity prices on commodity output using a three-factor, two-good general equilibrium trade model with three factors: capital, labor, and imported energy. We derive a sufficient condition for each sign…
This paper investigates how geopolitical conflict reshapes trade patterns, focusing on the economic consequences of the Russo-Ukrainian war on European and global trade flows. War is conceptualized as a shock that increases bilateral trade…
International economics has a long history of improving our understanding of factors causing trade, and the consequences of free flow of goods and services across countries. The recent shocks to the free trade regime, especially trade…
Forecasting crop yields is important for food security, in particular to predict where crop production is likely to drop. Climate records and remotely-sensed data have become instrumental sources of data for crop yield forecasting systems.…
Agricultural price prediction is crucial for farmers, policymakers, and other stakeholders in the agricultural sector. However, it is a challenging task due to the complex and dynamic nature of agricultural markets. Machine learning…
In all empirical-network studies, the observed properties of economic networks are informative only if compared with a well-defined null model that can quantitatively predict the behavior of such properties in constrained graphs. However,…
We address the problem of gauging the influence exerted by a given country on the global trade market from the viewpoint of complex networks. In particular, we apply the PWP method for computing indirect influences on the world trade…
Oil price fluctuations severely impact the economies of both oil-exporting and importing countries. High oil prices can benefit oil exporters by increasing foreign currency inflow; however, an economy can suffer from a weakening of the…
Wholesale electricity markets are increasingly integrated via high voltage interconnectors, and inter-regional trade in electricity is growing. To model this, we consider a spatial equilibrium model of price formation, where constraints on…