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Heterogeneous treatment effects can be very important in the analysis of randomized clinical trials. Heightened risks or enhanced benefits may exist for particular subsets of study subjects. When the heterogeneous treatment effects are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-25 Richard A. Berk , Matthew Olson , Andreas Buja , Aurelie Ouss

There is tremendous interest in precision medicine as a means to improve patient outcomes by tailoring treatment to individual characteristics. An individualized treatment rule formalizes precision medicine as a map from patient information…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-28 Daniel J. Luckett , Eric B. Laber , Michael R. Kosorok

We develop a unified theory of designs for controlled experiments that balance baseline covariates a priori (before treatment and before randomization) using the framework of minimax variance and a new method called kernel allocation. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-02 Nathan Kallus

We consider optimal designs for general multinomial logistic models, which cover baseline-category, cumulative, adjacent-categories, and continuation-ratio logit models, with proportional odds, non-proportional odds, or partial proportional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-19 Xianwei Bu , Dibyen Majumdar , Jie Yang

Many sectors nowadays require accurate and coherent predictions across their organization to effectively operate. Otherwise, decision-makers would be planning using disparate views of the future, resulting in inconsistent decisions across…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-09 Julien Leprince , Waqas Khan , Henrik Madsen , Jan Kloppenborg Møller , Wim Zeiler

In this paper, the tools provided by the theory of Optimal Experimental Design are applied to a nonlinear calibration model. This is motivated by the need of estimating radiation doses using radiochromic films for radiotherapy purposes. The…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-20 Jesús López-Fidalgo , Mariano Amo-Salas

Many social programs attempt to allocate scarce resources to people with the greatest need. Indeed, public services increasingly use algorithmic risk assessments motivated by this goal. However, targeting the highest-need recipients often…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-30 Bryan Wilder , Pim Welle

Observational studies are regarded as economic alternatives to randomized trials, often used in their stead to investigate and determine treatment efficacy. Due to lack of sample size, observational studies commonly combine data from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-16 Tianhui Zhou , William E. Carson , Michael Hunter Klein , David Carlson

Design-based frameworks of uncertainty are frequently used in settings where the treatment is (conditionally) randomly assigned. This paper develops a design-based framework suitable for analyzing quasi-experimental settings in the social…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-17 Ashesh Rambachan , Jonathan Roth

We propose novel optimal designs for longitudinal data for the common situation where the resources for longitudinal data collection are limited, by determining the optimal locations in time where measurements should be taken. As for all…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-04-20 Hao Ji , Hans-Georg Müller

This paper discusses the problem of determining optimal designs for regression models, when the observations are dependent and taken on an interval. A complete solution of this challenging optimal design problem is given for a broad class…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-25 Holger Dette , Andrey Pepelyshev , Anatoly Zhigljavsky

Randomized experimentation (also known as A/B testing or bucket testing) is widely used in the internet industry to measure the metric impact obtained by different treatment variants. A/B tests identify the treatment variant showing the…

We consider the classical problem of selecting the best of two treatments in clinical trials with binary response. The target is to find the design that maximizes the power of the relevant test. Many papers use a normal approximation to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-03-22 David Azriel , Micha Mandel , Yosef Rinott

Minimizing the number of patients exposed to potentially harmful drugs in early onco logical trials is a major concern during planning. Adaptive designs account for the inherent uncertainty about the true effect size by determining the…

Applications · Statistics 2016-05-03 Kevin Kunzmann , Meinhard Kieser

Among the major difficulties that one may encounter when estimating parameters in a nonlinear regression model are the nonuniqueness of the estimator, its instability with respect to small perturbations of the observations and the presence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-08-29 Andrej Pázman , Luc Pronzato

In a sequential multiple-assignment randomized trial (SMART), a sequence of treatments is given to a patient over multiple stages. In each stage, randomization may be done to allocate patients to different treatment groups. Even though…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-09 Rik Ghosh , Bibhas Chakraborty , Inbal Nahum-Shani , Megan E. Patrick , Palash Ghosh

In high-stakes domains like healthcare, users often expect that sharing personal information with machine learning systems will yield tangible benefits, such as more accurate diagnoses and clearer explanations of contributing factors.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Louisa Cornelis , Guillermo Bernárdez , Haewon Jeong , Nina Miolane

Estimating individual and average treatment effects from observational data is an important problem in many domains such as healthcare and e-commerce. In this paper, we advocate balance regularization of multi-head neural network…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-24 Mehrdad Farajtabar , Andrew Lee , Yuanjian Feng , Vishal Gupta , Peter Dolan , Harish Chandran , Martin Szummer

Achieving covariate balance in randomized experiments enhances the precision of treatment effect estimation. However, existing methods often require heuristic adjustments based on domain knowledge and are primarily developed for binary…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-25 Wenxuan Guo , Tengyuan Liang , Panos Toulis

Empirical design in reinforcement learning is no small task. Running good experiments requires attention to detail and at times significant computational resources. While compute resources available per dollar have continued to grow…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Andrew Patterson , Samuel Neumann , Martha White , Adam White