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Uncertainty calibration is crucial for various machine learning applications, yet it remains challenging. Many models exhibit hallucinations - confident yet inaccurate responses - due to miscalibrated confidence. Here, we show that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-28 Jeonghwan Cheon , Se-Bum Paik

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-01 Ge Yan , Yaniv Romano , Tsui-Wei Weng

Conformal prediction is an emerging technique for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true label with a predefined probability. Recent work develops online conformal prediction methods that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Huajun Xi , Kangdao Liu , Hao Zeng , Wenguang Sun , Hongxin Wei

Normals with unknown variance (NUV) and, more generally, normals with unknown parameters (NUP) can represent many useful priors including L_p norms and other sparsifying priors, and they blend well with linear-Gaussian models and Gaussian…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-01-28 Raphael Keusch , Hans-Andrea Loeliger

Graph contrastive learning has shown great promise when labeled data is scarce, but large unlabeled datasets are available. However, it often does not take uncertainty estimation into account. We show that a variational Bayesian neural…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-04 Alexander Möllers , Alexander Immer , Elvin Isufi , Vincent Fortuin

Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Nikolaos Bousias , Lars Lindemann , George Pappas

We propose a framework using contrastive learning as a pre-training task to perform image classification in the presence of noisy labels. Recent strategies such as pseudo-labeling, sample selection with Gaussian Mixture models, weighted…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-04-21 Madalina Ciortan , Romain Dupuis , Thomas Peel

Quantifying the uncertainty in the output of a neural network is essential for deployment in scientific or engineering applications where decisions must be made under limited or noisy data. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) provide a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-10 Alex Alberts , Ilias Bilionis

Cross-modal noise-robust learning is a challenging task since noisy correspondence is hard to recognize and rectify. Due to the cumulative and unavoidable negative impact of unresolved noise, existing methods cannot maintain a stable…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-12-18 Xu Zhang , Hao Li , Mang Ye

Conformal prediction (CP) gives distribution-free coverage for modern vision and language models, but it is often forced to make a ranking decision from a single unstable nonconformity score. Standard CP uses one realization, while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-25 Jiapeng Zeng , Yogesh Prabhu , Zhanpeng Zeng , Michael A. Newton , Vikas Singh

Surrogate models (including deep neural networks and other machine learning algorithms in supervised learning) are capable of approximating arbitrarily complex, high-dimensional input-output problems in science and engineering, but require…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Miguel Sánchez-Domínguez , Lucas Lacasa , Javier de Vicente , Gonzalo Rubio , Eusebio Valero

As Deep Learning continues to yield successful applications in Computer Vision, the ability to quantify all forms of uncertainty is a paramount requirement for its safe and reliable deployment in the real-world. In this work, we leverage…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-03-26 Eduardo D C Carvalho , Ronald Clark , Andrea Nicastro , Paul H J Kelly

In this article a novel approach for training deep neural networks using Bayesian techniques is presented. The Bayesian methodology allows for an easy evaluation of model uncertainty and additionally is robust to overfitting. These are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-03 Konstantin Posch , Jürgen Pilz

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Christopher Ries , Moussa Kassem Sbeyti , Nicolas Bianco , Nadja Klein

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a framework for constructing prediction sets with guaranteed coverage, assuming exchangeable data. However, real-world scenarios often involve distribution shifts that violate exchangeability, leading to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Shadi Alijani , Homayoun Najjaran

Uncertainty estimation is critical for cost-sensitive deep-learning applications (i.e. disease diagnosis). It is very challenging partly due to the inaccessibility of uncertainty groundtruth in most datasets. Previous works proposed to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-18 Bolian Li , Zige Zheng , Changqing Zhang

The Conditional Neural Process (CNP) family of models offer a promising direction to tackle few-shot problems by achieving better scalability and competitive predictive performance. However, the current CNP models only capture the overall…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-02 Deep Shankar Pandey , Qi Yu

Models that learn spurious correlations from training data often fail when deployed in new environments. While many methods aim to learn invariant representations to address this, they often underperform standard empirical risk minimization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Ruqi Bai , Yao Ji , Zeyu Zhou , David I. Inouye

There are many models, often called unnormalized models, whose normalizing constants are not calculated in closed form. Maximum likelihood estimation is not directly applicable to unnormalized models. Score matching, contrastive divergence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-27 Masatoshi Uehara , Takeru Matsuda , Fumiyasu Komaki

Conformal prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method to construct reliable prediction intervals that has gained significant attention in recent years. Despite its success and various proposed extensions, a significant practical feature…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Louis Allain , Sébastien Da Veiga , Brian Staber