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Deep neural networks are powerful tools to detect hidden patterns in data and leverage them to make predictions, but they are not designed to understand uncertainty and estimate reliable probabilities. In particular, they tend to be…

Convolutional neural network (CNN) has achieved unprecedented success in image super-resolution tasks in recent years. However, the network's performance depends on the distribution of the training sets and degrades on out-of-distribution…

Conformal prediction (CP) is a wrapper around traditional machine learning models, giving coverage guarantees under the sole assumption of exchangeability; in classification problems, for a chosen significance level $\varepsilon$, CP…

In inverse problems, it is widely recognized that the incorporation of a sparsity prior yields a regularization effect on the solution. This approach is grounded on the a priori assumption that the unknown can be appropriately represented…

Uncertainty estimation is essential for robust decision-making in the presence of ambiguous or out-of-distribution inputs. Gaussian Processes (GPs) are classical kernel-based models that offer principled uncertainty quantification and…

As machine learning-based prediction systems are increasingly used in high-stakes situations, it is important to understand how such predictive models will perform upon deployment. Distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques…

Noise-contrastive estimation (NCE) is a popular method for estimating unnormalised probabilistic models, such as energy-based models, which are effective for modelling complex data distributions. Unlike classical maximum likelihood (ML)…

Although deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have achieved tremendous success in audio classification tasks, their uncertainty calibration are still under-explored. A well-calibrated model should be accurate when it is certain about its prediction…

Reliably assessing model confidence in deep learning and predicting errors likely to be made are key elements in providing safety for model deployment, in particular for applications with dire consequences. In this paper, it is first shown…

Split conformal prediction (CP) is arguably the most popular CP method for uncertainty quantification, enjoying both academic interest and widespread deployment. However, the original theoretical analysis of split CP makes the crucial…

We study the robustness of conformal prediction, a powerful tool for uncertainty quantification, to label noise. Our analysis tackles both regression and classification problems, characterizing when and how it is possible to construct…

Accurate uncertainty quantification is a major challenge in deep learning, as neural networks can make overconfident errors and assign high confidence predictions to out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. The most popular approaches to estimate…

We revisit the problem of simultaneously testing the means of $n$ independent normal observations under sparsity. We take a Bayesian approach to this problem by introducing a scale-mixture prior known as the normal-beta prime (NBP) prior.…

Convolutional sparse coding (CSC) can learn representative shift-invariant patterns from multiple kinds of data. However, existing CSC methods can only model noises from Gaussian distribution, which is restrictive and unrealistic. In this…

In this work, we aim at augmenting the decisions output by quantum models with "error bars" that provide finite-sample coverage guarantees. Quantum models implement implicit probabilistic predictors that produce multiple random decisions…

Pre-trained self-supervised models such as BERT have achieved striking success in learning sequence representations, especially for natural language processing. These models typically corrupt the given sequences with certain types of noise,…

Deep neural networks achieve impressive results across diverse applications, yet their overconfidence on unseen inputs necessitates reliable epistemic uncertainty modelling. Existing methods for uncertainty modelling face a fundamental…

In the event of a nuclear accident, or the detonation of a radiological dispersal device, quickly locating the source of the accident or blast is important for emergency response and environmental decontamination. At a specified time after…

Learning stochastic functions from partially observed context-target pairs requires models that are expressive, uncertainty-aware, and strongly conditioned on inputs. Neural Diffusion Processes (NDPs) improve expressivity with denoising…

The accessibility of spatially distributed data, enabled by affordable sensors, field, and numerical experiments, has facilitated the development of data-driven solutions for scientific problems, including climate change, weather…