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Data assimilation, in its most comprehensive form, addresses the Bayesian inverse problem of identifying plausible state trajectories that explain noisy or incomplete observations of stochastic dynamical systems. Various approaches have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-01 François Rozet , Gilles Louppe

Many dynamical systems are difficult or impossible to model using high fidelity physics based models. Consequently, researchers are relying more on data driven models to make predictions and forecasts. Based on limited training data,…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-04-09 Max M. Chumley , Firas A. Khasawneh

Conventional recursive filtering approaches, designed for quantifying the state of an evolving uncertain dynamical system with intermittent observations, use a sequence of (i) an uncertainty propagation step followed by (ii) a step where…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-18 Wonjung Lee , Chris Farmer

Data-driven prediction and physics-agnostic machine-learning methods have attracted increased interest in recent years achieving forecast horizons going well beyond those to be expected for chaotic dynamical systems. In a separate strand of…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-05-19 Georg A. Gottwald , Sebastian Reich

Data assimilation addresses the problem of identifying plausible state trajectories of dynamical systems given noisy or incomplete observations. In geosciences, it presents challenges due to the high-dimensionality of geophysical dynamical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-03 François Rozet , Gilles Louppe

Continuous data assimilation addresses time-dependent problems with unknown initial conditions by incorporating observations of the solution into a nudging term. For the prototypical heat equation with variable conductivity and the Neumann…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-04-01 Vladimir Yushutin

Chaos is ubiquitous in physical systems. The associated sensitivity to initial conditions is a significant obstacle in forecasting the weather and other geophysical fluid flows. Data assimilation is the process whereby the uncertainty in…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-11-03 Alberto Carrassi , Marc Bocquet , Jonathan Demaeyer , Colin Grudzien , Patrick Raanes , Stephane Vannitsem

This article develops a novel data assimilation methodology, addressing challenges that are common in real-world settings, such as severe sparsity of observations, lack of reliable models, and non-stationarity of the system dynamics. These…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-11-05 David J. Abers , George Hripcsak , Lena Mamykina , Melike Sirlanci , Esteban G. Tabak

This paper develops a computational framework for optimizing the parameters of data assimilation systems in order to improve their performance. The approach formulates a continuous meta-optimization problem for parameters; the…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2015-06-16 Alexandru Cioaca , Adrian Sandu

We analyze the performance of a data-assimilation algorithm based on a linear feedback control when used with observational data that contains measurement errors. Our model problem consists of dynamics governed by the two-dimension…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2015-06-19 Hakima Bessaih , Eric Olson , E. S. Titi

We study prediction-assimilation systems, which have become routine in meteorology and oceanography and are rapidly spreading to other areas of the geosciences and of continuum physics. The long-term, nonlinear stability of such a system…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-13 Alberto Carrassi , Michael Ghil , Anna Trevisan , Francesco Uboldi

An intrinsic property of almost any physical measuring device is that it makes observations which are slightly blurred in time. We consider a nudging-based approach for data assimilation that constructs an approximate solution based on a…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2018-09-05 Michael S. Jolly , Vincent R. Martinez , Eric J. Olson , Edriss S. Titi

Variational data assimilation optimizes for an initial state of a dynamical system such that its evolution fits observational data. The physical model can subsequently be evolved into the future to make predictions. This principle is a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-21 Thomas Frerix , Dmitrii Kochkov , Jamie A. Smith , Daniel Cremers , Michael P. Brenner , Stephan Hoyer

We commonly refer to state-estimation theory in geosciences as data assimilation. This term encompasses the entire sequence of operations that, starting from the observations of a system, and from additional statistical and dynamical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2018-06-11 Alberto Carrassi , Marc Bocquet , Laurent Bertino , Geir Evensen

This work introduces a novel nonlinear optimal filtering method, termed the Ensemble Schr{\"o}dinger Bridge nonlinear filter. The proposed filter combines the standard prediction step with a diffusion-generative-modeling-based analysis…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Hui Sun

Understanding and predicting people flow in urban areas is useful for decision-making in urban planning and marketing strategies. Traditional methods for understanding people flow can be divided into measurement-based approaches and…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-01-18 Ryo Murata , Kenji Tanaka

The nudging data assimilation algorithm is a powerful tool used to forecast phenomena of interest given incomplete and noisy observations. Machine learning is becoming increasingly popular in data assimilation given its ease of computation…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-11-24 Harbir Antil , Rainald Löhner , Randy Price

The accuracy of simulation-based forecasting in chaotic systems is heavily dependent on high-quality estimates of the system state at the time the forecast is initialized. Data assimilation methods are used to infer these initial conditions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Michael McCabe , Jed Brown

Data assimilation (DA) aims at forecasting the state of a dynamical system by combining a mathematical representation of the system with noisy observations taking into account their uncertainties. State of the art methods are based on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-26 Pierre Boudier , Anthony Fillion , Serge Gratton , Selime Gürol , Sixin Zhang

This paper considers a class of real-time stochastic optimization problems dependent on an unknown probability distribution. In the considered scenario, data is streaming frequently while trying to reach a decision. Thus, we aim to devise a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-09-08 Dan Li , Sonia Martinez